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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 66.46%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 13.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 0-1 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
Result | ||
Groningen | Draw | NAC Breda |
66.46% ( 0.04) | 19.74% ( -0.02) | 13.81% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.22% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.6% ( 0.02) | 44.4% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.23% ( 0.02) | 66.77% ( -0.02) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.54% ( 0.02) | 12.46% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.58% ( 0.04) | 38.42% ( -0.03) |
NAC Breda Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.23% ( -0.02) | 43.77% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.06% ( -0.02) | 79.94% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Groningen | Draw | NAC Breda |
2-0 @ 11.82% 1-0 @ 11.36% 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.78% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.53% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.78% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 66.45% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.46% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.74% | 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 1.38% Total : 13.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |