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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 66.46%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 13.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 0-1 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
Result | ||
Groningen | Draw | NAC Breda |
66.46% ( 0.04) | 19.74% ( -0.02) | 13.81% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.22% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.6% ( 0.02) | 44.4% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.23% ( 0.02) | 66.77% ( -0.02) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.54% ( 0.02) | 12.46% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.58% ( 0.04) | 38.42% ( -0.03) |
NAC Breda Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.23% ( -0.02) | 43.77% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.06% ( -0.02) | 79.94% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Groningen | Draw | NAC Breda |
2-0 @ 11.82% 1-0 @ 11.36% 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.78% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.53% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.78% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 66.45% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.46% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.74% | 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 1.38% Total : 13.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |