Millwall boss Gary Rowett welcomes former club Derby County to The Den with just three points separating the teams in the Championship standings.
While the Rams are five points short of the playoffs, the Lions sit in eighth place and within touching distance of breaking into the top six.
Match preview
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Despite putting together a respective record of 26 wins from 60 games in charge of Derby, Rowett ultimately failed to earn the Rams a long-awaited return to the top flight.
However, having helped Millwall into contention for a playoff spot, the former defender will feel that his progressive side have a realistic chance of ending the campaign in the top six.
Although their form before lockdown, a return of five points from three games, helped them maintain an edge over their nearest rivals, Rowett will acknowledge that they need to find something extra during the closing nine fixtures.
As it stands, Millwall have recorded the joint-most draws in the division with 15 stalemates to their name, and a continuation of that return will leave the London outfit short of their target.
On the plus side, just six defeats have been suffered in 26 matches since Rowett's arrival in October, while their upcoming five fixtures are all against teams who are outside of the top 10.
While Derby have, so far, endured a disappointing campaign under Philip Cocu, they had been beginning to find some form before the suspension of the action.
Two convincing victories over Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn Rovers have moved Derby into 12th position, just five points adrift of the playoffs.
Although several clubs, including Millwall, remain in their way, having effectively ensured that they will not be pulled into a relegation battle makes the East Midlands outfit dangerous during the run-in.
Cocu will be relying on Wayne Rooney to continue to play an instrumental part in his team with the England legend having added three goals and two assists from 11 appearances.
However, some of the younger crop, including highly-regarded Max Bird, have an equally important part to play over the last nine fixtures if Derby are to become a factor further up the table.
Millwall Championship form: DWLDDW
Derby County Championship form: LDDLWW
Derby County form (all competitions): DDLWLW
Team News
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Despite having only recently returned to training, Rooney is expected to feature in Derby's starting lineup.
However, Cocu will be without Krystian Bielik, who will remain sidelined for the rest of the season due to a serious knee injury.
With his contract due to expire in June, Tom Huddlestone may also be left out of the squad.
Although they are making progress with their respective recoveries, Ben Thompson and Aiden O'Brien are unavailable for Millwall this weekend.
Derby loanee Mason Bennett is also unable to play against his parent club.
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Romeo, Hutchinson, Cooper, M.Wallace; Molumby, Woods; J.Wallace, Bradshaw, Ferguson; Smith
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Clarke, Wisdom, Forsyth; Rooney, Bird; Waghorn, Holmes, Knight; Martin
We say: Millwall 2-1 Derby County
Given their respective form before the coronavirus pandemic, both clubs will be confident of claiming maximum points. However, despite no crowd being present at their East London home, we are backing Millwall to make the most of playing on familiar territory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
