Argentinian side Defensa y Justicia travel to Brazilian giants Palmeiras for the second leg of the Recopa Sudamericana final on Wednesday evening.
The Copa Libertadores holders take a 2-1 advantage to the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia and will be hoping to secure a positive result against the 2020 winners of the Copa Sudamericana, as they aim to lift the trophy for the first time.
Match preview
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Palmeiras celebrated the treble in 2020, not only lifting their second Copa Libertadores trophy, but also winning the Copa do Brasil and the Campeonato Paulista.
The Palestra Alviverde are now on course to lift another trophy, after goals from Rony and substitute Gustavo Scarpa helped Abel Ferreira's side secure a narrow 2-1 first-leg win against Defensa in Buenos Aires.
Since last week's victory, Palmeiras lost the Supercopa do Brasil final 6-5 on penalties to Brasileiro holders Flamengo, after drawing 2-2 in 90 minutes.
Ferreira will have been disappointed to have lost the final, but is keen to move on and is now fully focused on three challenging upcoming fixtures - Wednesday's second leg as well as league encounters against Brazilian rivals Sao Paulo and Santos.
Victory in the Recopa Sudamericana final would see Palmeiras become the 19th different team to win the competition and they would also be the third Brazilian side in four years to lift the trophy.
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Defensa y Justicia head into Wednesday's second leg winless from their last four matches in all competitions, after their 2-1 loss to Palmeiras was followed by a 2-2 draw at home to Talleres Cordoba in the league on Saturday.
Strikes from Miguel Merentiel and Lautaro Escalante were cancelled out by own goals unfortunately scored by Juan Gabriel Rodriguez and Nestor Breitenbruch, the latter of whom was also sent off in added time.
Head coach Sebastian Beccacece is enduring an inconsistent campaign with the Hawks, who have won, drawn and lost three games each in the Argentine Primera Division.
A trip to Brazil to face Palmeiras is another difficult challenge but with only one goal separating the two sides, there is still every possibility that they can cause an upset and turn this final around, to claim their second major piece of silverware in three months.
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Team News
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Palmeiras boss Ferreira could be tempted to name the same starting lineup that won the first leg last week.
Midfielder Gabriel Menino suffered an ankle injury against Sano Bento last month and is unlikely to recover in time for the second leg.
Experienced midfielder Felipe Melo and Ze Rafael could keep their places in the side ahead of Danilo and Patrick de Paula, while Rony is set to start in attack with Breno and Willian Siqueira providing support from the flanks.
Defensa used a 4-4-2 formation in the first leg last week and they could stick with the same system on Wednesday.
Either Marcelo Benitez or Emanuel Britez is expected to start at left-wing back, while attacking midfielder Tomas Martinez will be hoping to start ahead of Carlos Rotoni.
Striker Walter Bou, who has scored five goals in nine appearances in 2021, is set to lead the line alongside Braian Romero.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Luan, Renan, Vina; Melo, Ze Rafael; Breno, Veiga, Willian; Rony
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Rodriguez, Frias, Meza, Benitez; Pizzini, Loaiza, Fernandez, Rotondi; Romero, Bou
We say: Palmeiras 3-1 Defensa y Justicia
After suffering defeat in the Supercopa do Brasil final last weekend, Palmeiras will be keen to ensure that they do not lose their second final in four days.
Defensa y Justicia are set to cause problems in the final third on Wednesday evening, however their defensive frailties should benefit the Brazilians and we feel that they have enough quality to win the Recopa Sudamericana.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 58.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 16.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.41%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (6.95%).
