Having claimed their first win of the 2021-22 League One season at the seventh attempt, Crewe Alexandra prepare to welcome Morecambe to the Mornflake Stadium on Tuesday evening.
The hosts overcame Burton Albion 2-0 to put a long-awaited three points on the board, whereas Morecambe suffered a 1-0 defeat to Doncaster Rovers at the weekend.
Match preview
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After claiming just one point from the first 15 on offer in the new League One campaign, Crewe's fortunes appear to be slowly but surely improving, with David Artell's side finally getting off the mark for the season against Burton Albion on Saturday.
The visitors' number five Michael Bostwick turned into his own net with 10 minutes on the clock to propel Crewe into the ascendancy, and Albion's hopes of a comeback became slimmer when Charlie Lakin was sent off before Tottenham Hotspur loanee J'Neil Bennett doubled his side's lead in the 87th minute.
Artell's men have also posted an EFL Trophy win and League One draw away to Shrewsbury Town over the past few weeks, but their mini-revival has not been enough to lift them out of the bottom three as they sit 21st after seven games, albeit with the chance to rise above their opponents this week.
Artell hailed "another step in the right direction" as Crewe Alexandra gave their supporters something to cheer at the weekend, with that 2-0 win representing just their second home win from their last nine in the third tier, and their upcoming visitors are not exactly high on confidence either.
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Despite an initially promising start to life in League One with four points from their opening two fixtures, Morecambe have since struggled to keep pace with the more established third-tier sides, suffering four defeats from their last five in league action.
Four days after suffering a 1-0 defeat to Everton's Under-21s in the EFL Trophy, the Shrimps lost by the same scoreline to basement side Doncaster Rovers - who had not won this season before the visit of Stephen Robinson's men - as Tommy Rowe netted the only goal of the encounter in the 81st minute.
Robinson lamented his side's lack of ruthlessness after the encounter - with the former Motherwell boss claiming that even a point would have left him frustrated - and he has sent a stern warning to his side that failure to defend set-pieces will see them struggle to keep their heads above water in the division.
However, 18th-placed Morecambe remain two points above the drop zone thanks to previous victories over Shrewsbury and Sheffield Wednesday, but they have taken just one point on the road from a possible nine so far and could drop to 20th depending on midweek results elsewhere.
Familiar opponents in League Two seasons gone by, Crewe Alexandra are aiming to stretch their unbeaten run against Morecambe to nine matches this week, with the Shrimps' most recent success in this fixture coming all the way back in the 2011-12 season.
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Team News
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Crewe new boy Madger Gomes made the bench on Saturday after a registration paperwork issue was finally resolved, but Chris Long is still struggling with a knee injury.
Midfielder Tom Lowery has been involved in a long-running contract dispute with the club and is not being considered for selection at present, but Celtic loanee Scott Robertson has already established himself in the engine room.
Former Scotland Under-21 international Callum McFadzean is an option for change in defence, but Artell will be reluctant to disrupt the harmony too much following Saturday's hard-fought win.
Morecambe expect forward Courtney Duffus is facing at least six weeks on the sidelines with a thigh problem, while fellow strikers Shayon Harrison (toe), Jonah Ayunga (knee), and Jonathan Obika (hamstring) are also recovering.
As a result, there will be no rest for the last man standing up top in Cole Stockton, who could find himself alongside Rangers loanee Josh McPake if Robinson feels the need to introduce fresh legs.
The Morecambe boss also sang the praises of new arrival Scott Wootton against Doncaster, with the 30-year-old set to reprise his role in defence alongside Anthony O'Connor.
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Jaaskelainen; Ramsay, Daniels, Thomas, Adebisi; Ainley, Robertson, Murphy, Bennett; Kashket, Mandron
Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Andresson; Cooney, Wotton, O'Connor, Leigh; Diagouraga, McCalmont, Phillips; McPake, Stockton, McDonald
We say: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Morecambe
With no fewer than four recognised strikers out through injury, Morecambe's woes on the attacking front are set to continue against a side who they have endured a poor run of results against in recent seasons.
In contrast, a sense of renewed confidence has overcome the hosts after a convincing weekend victory, and we can envisage Morecambe going down by a 1-0 scoreline once again, but Robinson's gritty unit will not make it easy for their opponents.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
