Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monagas win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Everton had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monagas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monagas would win this match.