MX23RW : Thursday, November 7 08:38:41| >> :60:518:518:
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 23, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Heriberto Hulse
Bahia

Criciuma
0 - 2
Bahia


Meritao (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
de Pena (89'), Lucas (90+3')
Lucas (48'), Xavier (55'), Luciano (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Criciuma and Bahia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Criciuma

All competitions
Last Game: Vasco 0-4 Criciuma
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Bahia

All competitions
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Bragantino
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Criciuma 0-0 Bahia (Bahia advances 1-0 on aggregate)

 The visitors should be more than comfortable playing in what we believe will be a close game, and we expect their poise in their backline will allow them to fend off any Criciuma attacks on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
CriciumaDrawBahia
34.85% (-0.126 -0.13) 26% (-0.227 -0.23) 39.15% (0.354 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.08% (0.733 0.73)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.7% (0.947 0.95)50.3% (-0.946 -0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (0.835 0.83)72.25% (-0.833 -0.83)
Criciuma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.32% (0.379 0.38)27.67% (-0.379 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.77% (0.484 0.48)63.23% (-0.483 -0.48)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.77% (0.626 0.63)25.23% (-0.625 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.03% (0.853 0.85)59.97% (-0.852 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Criciuma 34.85%
    Bahia 39.15%
    Draw 26%
CriciumaDrawBahia
1-0 @ 8.97% (-0.249 -0.25)
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.76% (-0.098 -0.1)
3-1 @ 3.4% (0.04 0.04)
3-0 @ 2.47% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.34% (0.069 0.07)
4-1 @ 1.09% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 34.85%
1-1 @ 12.35% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 6.98% (-0.271 -0.27)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.103 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26%
0-1 @ 9.62% (-0.195 -0.2)
1-2 @ 8.51% (0.071 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.62% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.91% (0.102 0.1)
0-3 @ 3.04% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.51% (0.091 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 1.05% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 39.15%

How you voted: Criciuma vs Bahia

Criciuma
0.0%
Draw
33.3%
Bahia
66.7%
9
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2024
11pm
Third Round
Bahia  
vs.
  Criciuma
rhs 2.0
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