As they enter their 31st game of the regular season, the Colorado Rapids have a chance to move a little closer to a playoff berth on Saturday when they host the Portland Timbers from Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
The Rapids were nine minutes away from upsetting the Seattle Sounders earlier this week but ultimately played to a 1-1 draw, while the Timbers have dropped a pair of heartbreaking fixtures, although they are still in fourth place with 46 points.
Match preview
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They continue to inch closer and closer to a postseason berth, but they are not there yet, though it seems like it will happen soon for Robin Fraser and his Rapids.
The Burgundy Boys have never made the playoffs in back-to-back campaigns since the 2010 and 2011 seasons, and there is a lot of optimism that they can not only get back there but make a deep run this year.
This team are especially lethal in dead ball situations, with 11 goals coming off of corner kicks this year and another two from free kicks. In fact, since 2019, they lead the league when it comes to set-piece goals, scoring 40 times.
Even though we did not see them create as many quality opportunities on Wednesday, their match versus the Rave Green was quite the tactical battle between a pair of sides who do not give you a lot of space.
In the end, a draw was probably a fair result, though the Rapids had victory in their grasp before getting burned on the counter by the Western Conference leaders.
There has certainly been a ton of consistency shown by this team throughout the season as they have not lost consecutive encounters all year, but Colorado have yet to show that they can beat the top contending teams in their conference, with four draws and two losses combined this year against the Sounders and Sporting Kansas City.
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For a second successive match, the Portland Timbers were left empty-handed when it looked as though they would pocket at least a point.
In both instances, some careless tackling in their own 18-yard box came back to bite them, losing to the Los Angeles Galaxy and Vancouver Whitecaps because of a penalty kick late in each game.
Giovanni Savarese was not pleased with how his side performed in the second half on Wednesday, as Portland were far too complacent and paid the price for hanging back as Vancouver erased a 2-0 deficit, with Cristian Dajome burying the winning goal from the spot in the 82nd minute.
When you look at the big picture, it should not affect their playoff hopes but earning a postseason game at Providence Park may not be so easy anymore.
The Timbers have dropped consecutive matches for the first time since late July, as it seems that the international break came at an inopportune time for this side, who were unbeaten in 10 straight matches heading into their game against the Galaxy last Saturday.
After their defeat to Vancouver, Savarese said that he would be very hard on his team, so it will be interesting to see how they respond, playing at a high-altitude against Colorado, who are right above them in the table, holding a six-point advantage on Portland heading into this match.
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Team News
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Earlier this week Dominique Badji scored his second goal of the season for the Rapids off an excellent corner from Jack Price, who collected his 12th assist of the year, which puts him in third in MLS behind only Djordje Mihailovic and Carles Gil.
Diego Rubio is eligible to return after missing their midweek affair with a yellow card suspension, meaning that Fraser might have Jonathan Lewis play just in behind the number 11.
Auston Trusty made his 90th career start in MLS while his defensive partner Keegan Rosenberry was in the starting 11 for the 80th time in his Colorado career, and Danny Wilson began in central defence with Kellyn Acosta operating as a fullback.
Dairon Asprilla scored his 16th career goal for the Timbers in their defeat on Wednesday while also becoming the only player on the team to appear in all 30 games this year.
After accumulating too many cautions, Diego Chara missed their match with Vancouver, while Cristhian Paredes will not be available for this game following his yellow card in midweek.
Bill Tuiloma and Claudio Bravo are questionable with right and left thigh injuries, respectively, Eryk Williamson has a left ACL tear, Andy Polo is out for the season with a right quad and knee injury, Jeff Attinella will not be back after having right rectus femoris surgery and Ismaila Jome underwent left Achilles tendon surgery and will not return this season.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Esteves, Abubakar, Trusty, Beitashour; Barrios, Warner, Price, Lewis; Badji, Rubio
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, McGraw, Zuparic, Bonilla; D. Chara, Fochive; Asprilla, Blanco, Y. Chara; Mora
We say: Colorado Rapids 1-1 Portland Timbers
These teams are in the top four of the Western Conference for a reason, because they are solid technical sides, who traditionally do not concede more than a goal in a game against the majority of their opponents.
The return of Diego Chara should give the Timbers a boost as they seem to struggle to earn results without him, while having Diego Rubio back should help the Burgundy Boys look a little more potent in the final third.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 62.99%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 16.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.12%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colorado Rapids would win this match.
