Colorado Rapids host Minnesota United on Thursday in the home side's 11th fixture of the 2021 Major League Soccer season, with the away side having played an extra game.
Minnesota currently sit sixth in the Western Conference, two points behind Colorado, who are in fourth with 17 points to their name.
Match preview
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Robin Fraser's Colorado have had a dip in form during the last two games, losing to Sporting Kansas City and drawing with Seattle Sounders, after two encouraging victories prior to those games.
Colorado travelled to Sporting KC last Thursday but the high-flying home side proved to be too strong for Fraser's team, who fell to a 3-1 defeat at Children's Mercy Park.
Last time out, Colorado faced the other team that make up the top two of the Western Conference in Seattle Sounders, when Michael Barrios's equaliser was enough to claim a point at home.
That result meant that the Sounders equalled the MLS record for going 12 games unbeaten at the start of a season, so Fraser could reflect on the draw in a positive light as no other team has managed to take three points from Brian Schmetzer's side.
To begin to secure their place in the final series playoff at the end of the season, Colorado will need current top goalscorers Diego Rubio and Barrios, who have both netted three times, to be more clinical in front of goal to catch leading scorers Sporting KC.
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As for Thursday's visitors, after a poor start to the season with four consecutive defeats, they have now found their form, currently on a run of seven games unbeaten.
In their last fixture, Adrian Heath's side had to settle for a point against a struggling San Jose Earthquakes side, who are winless in eight matches, playing out a 2-2 draw at the Allianz Field.
Minnesota's Ramon Abila saw his penalty saved by James Marcinkowski but the striker finished the rebound to put the home side 2-1 up, however San Jose's Benji Kikanovic earned his side a point eight minutes from time.
Minnesota are one of the Western Conference's lowest scoring teams this season, having only found the back of the net 12 times, and they would have been disappointed not to come away with all three points on Sunday after creating 18 attempts.
Colorado last faced Minnesota earlier this season, when the Rapids overturned a 2-0 scoreline in favour of Minnesota, to come out as 3-2 winners in Denver.
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Team News
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Colorado Rapids' experienced defender Steven Beitashour has not featured during the 2021 season as he is recovering from a muscle injury, and remains a doubt for Thursday's fixture, but is expected to return to the field this month.
Attacking midfielder Younes Namli, who is on loan from FC Krasnodar, was forced off the pitch in the first meeting between these two sides in May, and has been an absentee with an injured leg ever since.
Barrios is expected to start on the right of a front three for Fraser's side, who have switched between a 4-3-3 formation and a 5-3-2 shape during this campaign.
Minnesota are also missing an experienced defender as Ike Opara is recovering from concussion he suffered at the end of May, and Michael Boxall is also doubtful for Thursday's fixture.
The New Zealand international has been an ever-present for Minnesota this season, starting all 11 games, but had to be replaced by Brent Kallman after just half-an-hour last time out.
In recent games, Heath has opted for a 4-4-2 formation, with Adrien Hunou and Emanuel Reynoso leading the line for Minnesota, and they are expected to do so again against the Rapids.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Vines, Trusty, Wilson, Rosenberry; Shinyashiki, Acosta, Bassett; Lewis, Rubio, Barrios
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Gasper, Dibassy, Kallman, Raitala; Fragapane, Dotson, Trapp, Hansen; Reynoso, Hunou
We say: Colorado Rapids 2-1 Minnesota United
Colorado will take more confidence from their point against high-flying Seattle Sounders than Minnesota would have done with their point against a struggling San Jose Earthquakes side, which could give the home team the edge on Thursday.
The two sides are quite evenly matched in terms of their home and away form, with only two points between them in the league, however after consecutive games against the top two, Colorado will be aiming to capitalise on a fixture against a team closer to them in the table.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colorado Rapids would win this match.
