Championship

Championship | Gameweek 18

Nov 20, 2021 at 3pm UK

The KCOM Stadium

Hull City
2 - 0
Birmingham

Honeyman (17'), Wilks (57')
Magennis (43'), Bernard (45+3'), Greaves (65'), Docherty (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Hogan (34')
Gardner (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Hull City and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Championship strugglers Hull City will want to build on their first win in six matches when they host Birmingham City. The Tigers remain three points adrift of safety in 22nd place despite beating Barnsley a fortnight ago, while Blues are in 15th spot.

Match preview

Goals from George Honeyman and Keane Lewis-Potter secured a 2-0 win for Hull over Barnsley before the international break, ending a run of five successive defeats in the process. Grant McCann admitted that the break probably came at the wrong time for the Tigers, who would have wanted to try to build some momentum and move out of the bottom three. Nonetheless, with a trip to 20th-placed Cardiff City to come on Wednesday, McCann will feel this could be an important week for his side. Hull are the Championship's lowest scorers this season with just 11 goals to their name, while no team in the division has picked up fewer points at home (five). However, the Tigers are unbeaten in their last four matches against Birmingham and have won six consecutive games against Blues on home turf. Birmingham have just one win from their last six away games, yet only league leaders Bournemouth have conceded fewer goals on the road in the Championship this season. The last time that Blues won at the MKM Stadium was in the Premier League in 2009, when current boss Lee Bowyer starred in midfield. The Midlands outfit conceded twice in the final 20 minutes to lose 2-1 to Reading before the international break, a defeat which ended a run of three consecutive wins. It means that Birmingham currently sit four points behind the playoffs, with a Midlands derby against Coventry City to come on Tuesday.

Hull City Championship form:

Birmingham City Championship form:

Team News

Hull right-back Lewie Coyle has been sidelined until the new year after damaging his ankle ligaments; Josh Emmanuel should replace him. That may be the only change that Grant McCann makes as he aims to build on the win over Barnsley before the international break. George Honeyman's yellow card against the Tykes leaves him one booking away from a one-match suspension, a situation which Di'Shon Bernard is also in. Birmingham had hoped that the international break would allow them to bring back a few of their injured players, but only centre-back Dion Sanderson is set to return from the sidelines. It leaves Jordan Graham, George Friend, Maxime Colin and Kristian Pedersen all still unavailable. 19-year-old Marcel Oakley made his league debut in the absence of Graham against Reading and put in an impressive performance, so should keep his place. Hull City possible starting lineup: Baxter; Emmanuel, Bernard, Greaves, Elder; Smallwood, Docherty; Wilks, Honeyman, Lewis-Potter; Magennis Birmingham City possible starting lineup: Sarkic; Dean, Roberts, Sanderson; Oakley, Sunjic, Gardner, Bela; McGree; Hogan, Deeney

We said: Hull City 1-1 Birmingham City

With Birmingham still facing an injury crisis in defence, Hull may fancy their chances on Saturday. The Tigers' lack of goals remains their main issue, so we think it will be a low-scoring draw at the MKM Stadium.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 35.41%. A win for Hull City had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.25%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Hull City win was 1-0 (12.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Hull City	Draw	Birmingham City
35.02%	29.57%	35.41%

Both teams to score 43.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.29%

63.71%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.02%

82.98%

Hull City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.68%

34.32%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.97%

71.02%

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.94%

34.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.25%

70.75%

Score Analysis

Hull City 35.02%

Birmingham City 35.41%

Draw 29.56%

Hull City	Draw	Birmingham City
1-0 @ 12.5% 2-1 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 6.69% 3-1 @ 2.57% 3-0 @ 2.38% 3-2 @ 1.38% Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.02%	1-1 @ 13.46% 0-0 @ 11.69% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.56%	0-1 @ 12.59% 1-2 @ 7.25% 0-2 @ 6.78% 1-3 @ 2.6% 0-3 @ 2.43% 2-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 2.36% Total : 35.41%