Central Coast Mariners will be looking to strengthen their position at the top of the Australian A-League table on Monday when they travel to the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium to take on Melbourne City.
With a game in hand on second-placed Western Sydney Wanderers, the Mariners have a chance to stretch their lead back to six points at the summit of the table, while the visitors have built an impressive four-game league winning run.
Match preview
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Melbourne City picked up an impressive victory last time out, beating Macarthur 3-0 thanks to a Jamie Maclaren brace and a Craig Noone goal.
That followed an eye-catching 6-0 win over rivals Melbourne Victory, as Maclaren, Florin Berenguer, Rostyn Griffiths and Stefan Colakovski all netted goals alongside a Connor Metcalfe brace.
Patrick Kisnorbo's men have now put together a run of four consecutive A-League victories, seeing them rise up to fifth spot after a slow start to the season.
With a game in hand on fourth-placed Adelaide United and three games in hand on Western Sydney Wanderers and Macarthur in second and third spots respectively, Kisnorbo's side have a chance to quickly move to the top end of the table, with a win on Monday hugely boosting that bid.
That would see them go just four points behind their opponents, while keeping two games in hand on the Mariners, meaning they could go top of the league if they convert those games to victories.
However, that will not be a straightforward task, as they welcome a side who have raced to the top of the A-League table thanks to an impressive start to the season.
Central Coast Mariners' league position is largely due to their clinical attack, with no side in the A-League matching their 22 goals from 12 games so far this campaign.
The Mariners picked up a point in their last league outing, drawing 2-2 at home to Perth Glory.
They looked set to fall to a defeat, until Matt Simon converted a 90th-minute penalty to snatch a point for his side.
That stopped Alen Stajcic's side from building a winning run in the league, after they had previously defeated Perth Glory and Macarthur consecutively.
The Mariners will be looking to return to winning ways here, in order to move back away from the sides in pursuit of the top spot, including Monday's opponents who are quickly gaining momentum.
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Team News
Melbourne City will remain without midfielder Aiden O'Neill, who has been absent since the second game of the season with a back injury.
He is joined on the sidelines by Adrian Luna, who has missed the last three games having netted two goals in his six league appearances from midfield so far this campaign.
Jamie Maclaren will lead the line with plenty of confidence in this game, having scored seven goals in his last four league games, taking his tally to 10 goals for the season as well as four assists.
He will be supported in attack by Andrew Nabbout, who has been Melbourne's creative hub in his five games since joining from Melbourne Victory, registering three assists.
Central Coast Mariners' only absentee should be centre-back Lewis Miller, who remains out of the squad with an illness.
Matt Simon will lead the line for Stajcic's side, having netted six league goals so far this campaign.
Alou Kuol will be pushing for a starting spot alongside Simon for this game, having netted six goals this season from just four starts and six appearances off the bench.
However, he will face competition from Marco Urena, who netted the opening goal in the draw with Perth Glory last time out.
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Glover; Atkinson, Reis, Good, Jamieson; Metcalfe, Griffiths, Berenguer; Noone, Maclaren, Nabbout
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Nigro, Tongyik, Rowles, Clisby; Bouman, Bozanic, Nisbet, De Silva; Urena, Simon
We say: Melbourne City 2-1 Central Coast Mariners
Despite the visitors sitting at the top of the league table, we see the growing momentum of Melbourne City carrying them to a fifth straight victory on Monday.
Given their games in hand, the Melbourne outfit will have the top spot in their sights, with a win on Monday giving them an advantage over the Mariners, provided they can convert those extra games into victories.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 24.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
