Lecce will be looking to build on a crucial midweek victory when they head to Cagliari in Sunday's Serie A clash at the Sardegna Arena.
The Giallorossi picked up a shock win over Lazio to move out of the relegation zone, while mid-table Cagliari were held by Fiorentina to make it three games without a win.
Match preview
© Reuters
After spending the past five rounds of matches in the bottom three, Cagliari clawed their way out of the dropzone thanks to a 2-1 comeback win over second-placed Lazio on Tuesday.
Khouma Babacar and Fabio Lucioni scored either side of half time to cancel out Felipe Caicedo's early opener in a match that will be best remembered for Patric's sending off.
Lazio full-back Patric may have grabbed the headlines for biting Giulio Donati, but for Lecce it may well be the game that proves the turning point in their campaign.
A run of four successive defeats since returning to action last month, and six losses overall, left Fabio Liverani's men facing a swift return to Serie B.
With that one win, though, Lecce are now a point clear of 18th-placed Genoa in what is effectively a two-team shootout for the final relegation spot.
© Reuters
This weekend's match offers the visitors a chance to put another point on the board as they take on a Cagliari side with little left to play for.
The Islanders had been in European contention before going three games without a win, dropping points against Bologna and Fiorentina either side of a home loss against Atalanta BC.
They are now nine points off a Europa League spot and 13 points clear of the relegation zone, leaving them jostling for position in mid-table over their remaining seven games.
The home loss to Atalanta was Cagliari's fifth in their last seven games at the Sardegna Arena, though opponents Lecce are without a point in three away matches.
Goals can be expected in Sunday's clash, meanwhile, as the last seven encounters have produced at least two goals per game at an average of 3.4 per match.
Cagliari's Serie A form: LWWDLD
Lecce's Serie A form: LLLLLW
Team News
Andrea Carboni is back in contention for Cagliari after serving a suspension and could come straight back into defence, while Fabio Pisacane is also pushing for inclusion.
However, Leonardo Pavoletti, Gaston Pereiro and Luca Ceppitelli all remain absent for the hosts due to injury.
Joao Pedro should retain his place up top and is looking to add to his tally of nine goals in 20 Serie A meetings against promoted clubs.
Lecce will also welcome a player back from suspension, with Greek midfielder Panagiotis Tachtsidis returning for Sunday's clash.
Lucioni may be tempted into making a change or two elsewhere, which could see Diego Farias return to the XI up top.
Striker Gianluca Lapadula has scored three goals in five league appearances against Cagliari, making them his favourite opponent in the competition.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Carboni, Pisacane, Klavan; Mattiello, Nandez, Nainggolan, Ionita, Lykogiannis; Simeone, Pedro
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Donati, Lucioni, Paz, Calderoni; Petriccione, Tachtsidis, Barak; Falco, Mancosu; Farias
We say: Cagliari 2-2 Lecce
Lecce have plenty to play for in the final run-in and will see this as an opportunity to get another point on the board. Cagliari have lost momentum and have struggled for home wins in the second half of the campaign, so we are tipping this one to finish all square.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 50.55%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 25.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
