Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.