Borussia Monchengladbach and Mainz 05 meet in the Bundesliga on Sunday afternoon with just four points separating the clubs in the standings.
However, at a time when the home side still have work to do in order to stay away from a relegation battle, the visitors will remain in the hunt for the European spots with victory at Borussia-Park.
Match preview
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After several years in the mix at the right end of the table, Monchengladbach now find themselves regarded as a club who are no more than a mid-table team in the Bundesliga.
Six defeats in eight matches during the midway point of the campaign left Adi Hutter's team looking over their shoulder rather than targeting the top six, and only a recent resurgence has eased any lingering relegation concerns.
Victories over Hertha Berlin and Bochum - the second of which being confirmed after the game was abandoned during the closing stages due to crowd trouble - have certainly come at the right time, the Colts now up to 11th and eight points clear of the bottom two.
Clean sheets were kept in both fixtures, ending a 13-game wait for a shutout in the league, and Alassane Plea has now netted in his last three outings.
With a favourable schedule in front of them, Hutter will expect more wins before the end of the season, although they cannot afford any complacency against their next opponents.
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Mainz cannot claim to have been in the best of form in recent matches, defeats against Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund being recorded before thrashing Arminia Bielefeld last time out.
Nevertheless, sitting seven points adrift of sixth position with a game in hand, Bo Svensson will be satisfied with the scenario which lies ahead of his team for the run-in.
Possessing the joint-third best defensive record in the division, Mainz will feel that they can trouble any of their remaining eight opponents, Bayern Munich representing the only current top-six side who still feature in their schedule.
However, it is worth noting that Mainz netted three penalties during the 4-0 win against Bielefeld, highlighting that they still have work to do in the final third if they want to stay in the running for the Europa League or Europa Conference League.
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Team News
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Both teams will make further assessment close to kickoff having had to deal with wide-ranging coronavirus issues over the past two weeks.
Monchengladbach boss Hutter, who has also recently recovered from coronavirus, will definitely be without Mamadou Doucoure, who is dealing with a muscle injury.
Providing that both players are fit, Hutter has a decision to make regarding who features in the back three out of Nico Elvedi and Jordan Beyer.
Mainz will have to make do without Dominik Kohr, who serves a one-match suspension for collecting five yellow cards.
Leandro Martins, Anton Stach and Kevin Stoger are all pushing for recalls in central areas.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Bensebaini, Elvedi; Lainer, Neuhaus, Kramer, Kone, Netz; Embolo, Plea
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hack, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Martins, Stach, Stoger, Lucoqui; Burkardt; Onisiwo
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 Mainz 05
Both teams may be prepared to throw caution to the wind in this contest, particularly the visitors who will want to stay in the mix for European qualification. However, that may contribute to their downfall, and we are backing Monchengladbach to extend their recent revival.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
