Borussia Dortmund entertain Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts looking to get back to winning ways after last weekend's 4-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Monchengladbach.
Edin Terzic's side are unlikely to have things entirely their own way, though, with the reverse fixture ending 2-0 to Augsburg in September.
Match preview
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After a promising start to life under interim coach Terzic, Dortmund have taken just one point from their last three games to slide to seventh in the table.
With the likes of Wolfsburg, Gladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt finding serious form at the right time of the season, there is little doubt that BVB have a serious job on their hands to finish in the Champions League qualification positions this season.
In Erling Braut Haaland they have a striker who could single-handedly get them there, though, although the Norway striker's first-half brace was not enough to earn his side any points on the board in last Friday's defeat at Gladbach.
After Nico Elvedi powered the hosts into the lead with a fine header, Haaland raced onto Jadon Sancho's delicious through ball in trademark style before dinking the ball over Yann Sommer. Six minutes later he swiftly swivelled on the ball before smashing it into the bottom corner, but goals from Elvedi, Ramy Bensebaini and Marcus Thuram took the game away from Terzic's side, with them desperately needing to bounce back against Augsburg this weekend to avoid another crisis of confidence at the club.
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Having lost three matches in a row, Augsburg were beginning to look over their shoulders at the relegation places ahead of last weekend's home match against over-achieving Union Berlin.
However, Heiko Herrlich restored Florian Niederlechner to his first XI, with the forward repaying his manager's faith with his long-awaited first goals of the season. No-one would have known he was on a goal drought, such was the clinical nature of his opening strike, with the former Freiburg man taking two excellent touches to race in behind and fire across goal.
Marcus Ingvartsen levelled proceedings eight minutes later with a similarly well-placed finish, before Niederlechner doubled his tally with a simple finish after Andre Hahn's first-time strike had been parried into his path.
There was certainly an element of fortune about the 2-1 victory, with Ingvartsen missing a penalty after Niederlechner was adjudged to have pushed an opponent and Rafal Gikiewicz producing heroics in goal to deny Liverpool loanee Taiwo Awoniyi, but Herrlich will be delighted to have put healthy distance between themselves and the relegation zone.
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: LWWDLL
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WWWDLL
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LWLLLW
Augsburg form (all competitions): LWLLLW
Team News
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Dortmund remain without Axel Witsel, Thorgan Hazard, Marcel Schmelzer and Dan-Axel Zagadou due to injury.
Terzic is boosted by the return of Thomas Delaney from suspension, though, with the midfielder likely to slot alongside Emre Can to bolster BVB in the middle of the park.
Augsburg, meanwhile, will travel without the injured Ruben Vargas and Raphael Framberger, but otherwise appear to have a clean bill of health.
Niederlechner should retain his place in attack having finally ended his goalscoring drought.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Can, Delaney; Sancho, Reus, Reyna; Haaland
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Oxford, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai; Caligiuri, Strobl, Gruezo, Iago; Hahn, Richter; Niederlechner
We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Augsburg
We expect Dortmund to get back to winning ways against an effective but ultimately limited Augsburg outfit.
Terzic is likely to target a clean sheet in this match, with only four sides scoring fewer goals than Augsburg so far this season, in order to alleviate pressure from his talented array of attackers.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 69.32%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
