Slow starters Bologna host resurgent Cagliari at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Saturday evening, as Sinisa Mihajlovic's men aim to kickstart their ailing Serie A campaign.
This potentially goal-filled Halloween clash sees the visitors from Sardinia arrive in high spirits, following three consecutive wins, while Bologna languish near the bottom of the table with just one win to date.
Match preview
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The Felsinei have now lost their last three Serie A matches, though did register a 2-0 home win over Serie B side Reggina in Tuesday's Coppa Italia tie, as their coach has apportioned blame to individual errors rather than tactical shortcomings.
Their most recent league defeat, against Lazio, saw the Rossoblu narrowly fail to complete a stirring comeback from two goals down as Ciro Immobile's strike proved the difference.
Having edged the possession stats at the Olimpico and had more than 20 shots on goal - while the hosts scored twice from five on-target attempts - Bologna came away from the capital feeling frustrated.
That 2-1 defeat also saw them equal an unwanted all-time record for Europe's top five leagues by conceding in 38 consecutive league games, as originally 'achieved' by Duisburg in 1975. The Queens Park Rangers side of 1969 are next on the list, with 39.
Bologna now sit 17th in the early standings, with eight goals scored and 10 conceded - at a rate of two per game - reflecting their forward-thinking but perhaps flawed approach.
The club's policy based on development of several young talents, such as ex-Hearts left-back Aaron Hickey, Swedish midfielder Mattias Svanberg, Jerdy Schouten, Andreas Skov Olsen, recent Iceland cap Andri Baldursson and Emanuel Vignato, is admirable but requires patience while senior squad members continue to toil fruitlessly.
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Meanwhile, their visitors this weekend appear to be flourishing under ex-Roma and Sassuolo boss Eusebio Di Francesco, celebrating back-to-back victories over Torino and Crotone recently.
They too were successful in Coppa Italia action in midweek, defeating Cremonese 1-0 at the Sardegna Arena.
Employing a more flexible formation has allowed Di Francesco to incorporate Joao Pedro and Riccardo Sottil in advanced positions, in support of the ever dangerous Giovanni Simeone. That has helped reap seven goals and six points from their previous pair of league fixtures.
Following a thumping defeat at the hands of Atalanta, Gli Isolani recovered to beat first Torino and then Crotone - aided by a stunning Charalampos Lykogiannis free kick - leaving them firmly in mid-table, with seven points.
Like Mihajlovic - his one-time adversary from Rome derbies past - Di Francesco's team prefer to attack, registering 10 goals, but conceding 12 already. Therefore, goals look to be guaranteed in this battle of the Rossoblu.
Bologna Serie A form: LWLLL
Bologna form (all competitions) LWLLLW
Cagliari Serie A form: DLLWW
Bologna for (all competitions) DLLWWW
Team News
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Mihajlovic is likely to persist with his usual 4-2-3-1, which will see last week's goalscorer Lorenzo De Silvestri, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Danilo join Hickey in the back four.
In the middle of the park, Svanberg will line up alongside either Schouten or Nicolas Dominguez, while Nicola Sansone may lose his place in the forward line to Musa Barrow, in support of lone striker Rodrigo Palacio.
Mitchell Dijks, Gary Medel, Andrea Poli and Skov Olsen are not available through injury. Veteran Chile defender Medel has been undertaking a differentiated schedule at the training ground, with a view to returning to action in the coming days.
Visiting coach Di Francesco may go with Nahitan Nandez, Razvan Marin and Marko Rog in midfield, while in attack, Sottil, Simeone and Joao Pedro will continue. Adam Ounas again looks destined to start on the bench.
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; De Silvestri, Danilo, Tomiyasu, Hickey; Schouten, Svanberg; Orsolini, Soriano, Barrow; Palacio
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Walukiewicz, Godin, Lykogiannis; Marin, Rog; Nandez, Joao Pedro, Sottil; Simeone
We say: Bologna 2-2 Cagliari
As either side are less likely to keep a clean sheet than transmogrify into werewolves during this Halloween fixture, goals seem a probable outcome at the Renato Dall'Ara.
Cagliari's attack is particularly potent at the moment, but this could be the night for the hosts to add to a meagre points tally, given the porous nature of the Sardinians' defence.
Bologna are unbeaten in their last eight home games against the visitors and can continue the trend.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 48.46%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-2 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
