Boavista travel to Gil Vicente on Wednesday in the final game of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, with the away side at risk of being relegated.
The visitors currently sit two points above the relegation zone and the goal difference between the teams at the bottom-end of the table is close, with Boavista only two goals better off than 17th-placed Farense.
Match preview
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Gil Vicente currently sit 11th in the Primeira Liga and are not in danger of being relegated but they cannot reach the European qualification places on the final day either.
Last time out Ricardo Soares's side defeated fifth-placed Pacos de Ferreira with the away side's goals coming from Lourency and Pedro Marques, who both moved onto five goals for the season in that game.
The side from Barcelos are finishing the 2020-21 campaign strongly as they are unbeaten in their last four matches, during which time 34-year-old goalkeeper Denis has kept three clean sheets and only conceded one goal, which came in his side's draw with Braga.
Gil Vicente finished last season in 10th place after a three-year absence from the top division in Portugal, but the club's instability is demonstrated through the changes in the manager's role having had seven different managers in as many seasons.
As for Wednesday's visitors, they have a lot to play for on the final day of the season, knowing that a win at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos will ensure their survival in the Primeira Liga.
On the weekend, Jesualdo Ferreira's side claimed a vital victory against 14th-placed Portimonense as Jackson Porozo's second strike of the season was enough for the hosts to earn a 1-0 win.
Prior to their last game Boavista went on a five-game winless run, however the spell in the season which has landed them in a relegation battle was mainly between the beginning of November and the end of January when the side went on a nine-game run of form without recording a victory.
Hope for Ferreira's side will come from the fact that they are the top scorers out of the teams in the bottom half of the league, netting 37 times in 33 matches, which is five more than their opponents on Wednesday.
The home side this week have not lost to Boavista in the last four meetings between the sides, and earlier in the season Vicente came out as 2-1 winners after Yves Baraye scored with five minutes to play in that game.
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Team News
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After a positive victory last time out, Soares is likely to name a similar starting 11 to the side who beat Pacos de Ferreira last Friday.
However, 21-year-old attacker Samuel Lino only came on with 10 minutes to go in that game and being the club's top goalscorer this season with eight goals, he will be wanting to play on Wednesday to secure his personal achievement within the team.
Midfielder Miguel Reisinho has not featured for Boavista since November and he will miss out again on Wednesday as he recovers from a cruciate ligament injury.
Alberth Elis is Boavista's top goalscorer this season, also with eight goals, and his side will be relying on him and his strike partner Angel Gomes, who has six goals this campaign, to come up with the goals to save them from relegation.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Talocha, Fernandes, Rodrigao, Pereira; Goncalves, Carvalho, Pedrinho; Lourency, Lino, Marques
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Leo; Porozo, Awaziem, Rami, Cannon; Mangas, Sauer, Perez, Paulinho; Elis, Gomes
We say: Gil Vicente 0-1 Boavista
Gil Vicente's home form in the league this season is the second-worst in the Primeira Liga and Wednesday's hosts do not have that much to play for in terms of qualifying for any tournament or avoiding any relegation.
Boavista know that three points will guarantee their safety in the league and this motivation should be enough for Ferreira's side to ensure they control the destiny of their club and do not rely on other results.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 50.1%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 23.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
