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Belenenses
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 27
Apr 17, 2021 at 6pm UK
Estádio do Restelo
Maritimo

Belenenses
2 - 0
Maritimo

Cardoso (37' pen.), Teixeira (88')
Ribeiro (56'), Phete (73'), Kritsyuk (87'), Cardoso (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Hermes (50'), Rene (73'), Correa (87')

Preview: Belenenses vs. Maritimo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Maritimo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

This weekend's key game at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table takes place in Lisbon on Saturday, as Belenenses welcome Maritimo to the Estadio Nacional.

Maritimo lifted themselves off the foot of the table with a crucial 1-0 win over Farense last time out, while Saturday's hosts sit just two places and three points ahead in 14th spot.


Match preview

Belenenses head coach Petit pictured in July 2020© Reuters

Belenenses secured an impressive point last time out, as they held fourth-placed Braga to a 1-1 draw away from home.

Nicolas Gaitan put the hosts ahead in the first half, but Mateo Cassierra went on to equalise on the hour mark to seal an important point for his side.

However, that positive result followed a disappointing defeat for Petit's side, as they fell to a 2-0 loss at the hands of fellow strugglers Boavista, with Angel Gomes and Alberth Elis getting on the scoresheet.

As a result, O Belem have fallen down the Primeira Liga table, now sitting just three points ahead of Saturday's opponents in the relegation playoff place and five points above the automatic drop zone.

That means the hosts will be looking to return to winning ways on Saturday to put some more much-needed distance between themselves and the bottom three.

However, they take on a Maritimo side who are also in desperate need of a positive result to boost their chances of avoiding the drop.

Belenenses head coach Petit pictured in June 2020© Reuters

Julio Velazquez picked up the most important result of his short spell as Maritimo manager last time out, as his side defeated fellow strugglers Farense 1-0 thanks to an Ali Alipour goal on the stroke of half time.

Velazquez took charge of the club following the recent departure of Milton Mendes, with the side sat bottom, and he has hugely boosted their chances of survival with two wins from his first four games to lift Os Verde-Rubros out of the automatic relegation zone.

Maritimo now sit in the relegation playoff place, just one point behind Boavista and three points behind Famalicao and Saturday's opponents.

That means Velazquez's men could move out of the bottom three with what would be a crucial victory on Saturday, offering a huge incentive to the side from Madeira as they go into this crucial encounter.

Belenenses Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D

Maritimo Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Belenenses' Miguel Cardoso celebrates scoring their first goal with Afonso Gamelas in December 2020© Reuters

Belenenses will be without midfielder Sphephelo Sithole, who will serve a suspension after he was shown his fifth yellow card of the season in the draw with Braga.

Thibang Phete will also remain out for this game, having missed the last two matches through injury.

However, Afonso Taira will return from his suspension to fill the gap left in midfield.

Pepa's decision to bring in Mateo Cassierra paid off with a goal in the draw with Braga, and he is expected to lead the line again, supported by the threat of Miguel Cardoso who has been moved to the left-hand side.

Goncalo Silva, Henrique and Tomas Ribeiro have formed a solid back line this season, and will shield Stanislav Kritsyuk again on Saturday.

Maritimo could remain without their talisman Rodrigo Pinho, who missed the last game with an injury after serving a suspension.

Pinho tops Os Verde-Rubros' spring charts with nine goals in 16 league appearances, but Ali Alipour filled that void with a crucial goal last time out.

They will also be missing crucial midfielder Franck-Yves Bambock, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the victory over Farense.

However, they will be boosted by several returning players, as right-back Claudio Winck and midfielder Pedro Pelagio both served one-game suspensions last time out.

Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Silva, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Taira, Sousa, Lima; Varela, Cardoso, Sousa

Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Santos, Junior, Andrade; Winck, Costa, Pelagio, Jean, Hermes; Tagueu, Alipour


SM words green background

We say: Belenenses 1-1 Maritimo

With a solid defensive outfit hosting a revitalised side under a new manager, this game could definitely go either way.

On this occasion, we predict a draw as both sides will be extremely fearful of a defeat which could see them fall further towards the threat of relegation



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 36.26%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (12.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Belenenses vs Maritimo

Belenenses
66.7%
Draw
33.3%
Maritimo
0.0%
6
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon1111003953433
2Porto119022882027
3Benfica108112872125
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara117041412221
5Braga116231911820
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes115331211118
7FamalicaoFamalicao11452129317
8MoreirenseMoreirense115241514117
9Casa Pia113441014-413
10Rio AveRio Ave113351020-1012
11Gil Vicente112451419-510
12Estoril PraiaEstoril11245816-810
13AVS11245919-1010
14BoavistaBoavista11236715-89
15Estrela Amadora112361020-109
16Nacional10226615-98
17AroucaArouca11227619-138
18SC FarenseFarense11128518-135


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