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Leverkusen logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 17, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Bayern logo

B. Leverkusen
1 - 5
Bayern

Schick (55')
FT(HT: 0-5)
Lewandowski (4', 30'), Muller (34'), Gnabry (35', 37')

Preview: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

There is a top-of-the-table clash at the BayArena in the Bundesliga on Sunday, when second-placed Bayer Leverkusen host leaders and reigning champions Bayern Munich.

The two sides are separated only on goal difference heading into the fixture, and factoring in the recent meetings between the two with the fact they are the division's two highest scorers, an entertaining encounter is to be expected.


Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen's Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby celebrate scoring their first goal with teammates on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Life at Leverkusen could not have started much better for manager Gerardo Seoane, since his arrival in the summer from Swiss side Young Boys.

After tasting just a single defeat and winning eight of his first 10 matches in charge across all competitions, it is fair to say that the gamble in his appointment has paid off so far.

Seoane has got Die Werkself playing an entertaining high pressure and attacking style of play, with 18-year-old Florian Wirtz being at the centre of most attacking transitions, notching up four goals and five assists in just six Bundesliga appearances so far this campaign.

The 20 goals netted in the league to date is second only to Sunday's opponents Bayern, whilst conceding just the seven is proof of the side's impressive efforts at the other end of the pitch too.

A 4-3 defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund is the only setback during the 2021-22 season as it stands, and Seoane will be determined to show that his team can compete and achieve results in the bigger tests as well, with there being no larger occasion to demonstrate this than against the reigning champions on Sunday.

However, their recent record against the Bavarians is not ideal, with losses in each of the last four encounters, and just two victories in the last 14 meetings.

Bayern Munich's Leroy Sane celebrates scoring their first goal against VfL Bochum in the Bundesliga on September 18, 2021© Reuters

As for the visitors, new manager Julian Nagelsmann has achieved an almost identical record to his opposite number on Sunday, during his short tenure in Munich so far.

Defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt before the international break was the first that the former RB Leipzig boss has had to taste, with the loss proving to be a slight reality check after a near-perfect start prior to it - one draw and nine straight wins across all competitions before the setback.

Despite blowing away most opponents with some breathtaking football before facing off against Frankfurt, Die Bayern somehow failed to score more than once, with Leon Goretzka's first-half goal being pegged back immediately, before a late goal from Filip Kostic saw the reigning champions fall to a rare setback at the Allianz Arena.

Nagelsmann will be keen to ensure that the result means very little come the end of the season, and that it will soon be forgotten about by bouncing back at the BayArena on Sunday.

It is likely that it happens to be just a small blip in the road, but were Bayern to slip up again at the weekend, they would be handing a boost to their potential title-challenging opponents, as well as handing confidence to the rest of the division for when they face off against the Bavarians in the future.

Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L



Team News

Benjamin Pavard celebrates scoring for Bayern Munich on May 30, 2020© Reuters

Robert Andrich will serve the third and final match of his three-match suspension for the hosts on Sunday, after picking up a straight red card against Stuttgart back in September.

Long-term absentees Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Julian Baumgartlinger remain the only other players on the sidelines for Seoane, who is likely to welcome back defender Mitchel Bakker into the starting lineup after his recent absence.

Patrik Schick will lead the line, hoping to add to his tally of six Bundesliga goals already this campaign, which leaves him third only to Erling Braut Haaland and Robert Lewandowski.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Pavard will serve the second of his own three-match suspension for the visitors at the weekend, after receiving his marching orders in the victory at Greuther Furth.

Niklas Sule is likely to receive the nod to fill in at right-back over Josip Stanisic, whilst spare goalkeeper Sven Ulreich remains on the sidelines due to a knee injury.

Winger Kingsley Coman is making progress on his return from minor heart surgery, but remains listed as a doubt due to fitness concerns after being unavailable since the middle of September.

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Kossounou, Tah, Bakker; Aranguiz, Demirbay; Bellarabi, Wirtz, Diaby; Schick

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer, Sule, Upamecano, Hernandez, Davies; Goretzka, Kimmich; Gnabry, Muller, Sane; Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Bayern Munich

On paper this looks to be an exciting match for the neutral on Sunday, with a number of goals usually being scored in these meetings, and the two sides being the highest scorers so far this campaign.

The hosts are flying at the moment and will look to put as much pressure as possible on their visitors, in order to pounce on any doubts after their first defeat prior to the break, but it is difficult to separate the two so a draw is a likely outcome.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.27%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 22.31% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.09%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Bayern

Bayer Leverkusen
17.8%
Draw
19.7%
Bayern Munich
62.4%
157
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Bayer Leverkusen's Florian Wirtz pictured on September 16, 2021
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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