Bahia host Bragantino this weekend, with the away side 10 points better off than their opponents in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Bahia head into the fixture in 15th position, while Bragantino are currently located in fifth and are trying to edge into the top four to secure a group stage place in next season's Copa Libertadores.
Match preview
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Bahia are currently sitting just above the relegation zone, but four points from their last two league fixtures has provided the side with a confidence boost in their quest to avoid the drop.
Hugo Rodallega scored an impressive four goals in their last home game, which helped secure a 4-2 victory over Fortaleza and they followed that up with a 0-0 draw away to Santos, which has improved their points tally.
Conceding goals has been the problem for Bahia, as they have shipped 32 times in the league this campaign; only Chapecoense have let in the same number and no other team has a worse defence than the two sides.
Concerningly, the leaky defence has been an issue both home and away and the backline will need to improve if they are to avoid relegation, which is why they may take confidence from the goalless draw last time out.
A positive is that they have won the last three home games they have played against Bragantino, scoring no fewer than two goals in each of those encounters.
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In contrast to their hosts, Bragantino's last two fixtures have not been positive as they have only managed to pick up one point from a possible six.
Overall, their last six league fixtures have yielded mixed results, which have seen eight points collected, but their most recent fixture ended in disappointment.
Last weekend, Bragantino experienced a surprising defeat to bottom-placed side Chapecoense, as they lost the game in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
The visitors will be looking to bounce back from that poor result, and they will take confidence from their away form this season, which has seen Bragantino win six of their nine league away games.
Bragantino will be desperate to take something from this fixture to keep in touch with the top four, and they will hope for a better result than what they got on their last trip away to Bahia, which resulted in them losing 2-1 in the third minute of additional time.
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Team News
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Bahia will be without Rossi and Juan Ramirez, who are both out injured, and Ramirez is expected to be out for a prolonged period of time.
German Conti picked up his third yellow card of the season last time out against Santos, therefore the defender will miss the game this weekend as he serves a one-match suspension.
The experienced Lucas Fonseca could come into the centre of the defence in the absence of Conti.
Bragantino do not have Raul available, as the midfielder is expected to be a long-term absentee through injury.
Lucas Evangelista and Bruno Tubarao are out after sustaining injuries, though it is hoped the pair are not absent for too long.
The visitors are also without Artur, who received a red card against Chapecoense, and as a result the forward will miss the Bahia clash through suspension.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Claus; Paraiba, Fonseca, Otavio, Capixaba; Ruiz, Araujo, Mugni, Isnaldo; Oliveira, Rodallega
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Edimar; Martinez, Ramires, Vitinho; Helinho, Cuello, Ytalo
We say: Bahia 2-2 Bragantino
The reverse fixture between the sides back in June finished in a 3-3 draw, so goals can be expected in this clash.
Although, 10 points separate the teams heading into the game, Bragantino usually struggle away to Bahia so the away side will be content with a point from this encounter.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Bahia win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
