Aiming to climb back to the top of UEFA World Cup 2022 qualification Group A, Portugal travel to Azerbaijan to conclude September's international break on Tuesday night.
The hosts claimed their first point of Qualifying with a 1-1 draw versus the Republic of Ireland last time out, whereas Portugal eased to a 3-1 friendly win over Qatar.
Match preview
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Seemingly destined to exit Group A without a point to their name for a short while, Azerbaijan travelled to the Aviva Stadium at the weekend to take on Ireland following three successive losses to Portugal, Serbia and Luxembourg in World Cup Qualifying.
However, Giovanni De Biasi's side shocked Stephen Kenny's men on the stroke of half time with a goal from Emin Mahmudov, and it took an 87th-minute header from reinvigorated Brighton & Hove Albion man Shane Duffy to prevent Azerbaijan from travelling home with all three points.
That impressive result has done little to boost Azerbaijan's qualification bid, though, as the world's 112th-ranked nation remain bottom of the pile with one point to their name, although Ireland are only ahead of their counterparts on goals scored.
While a morale-boosting draw with Ireland may lead to a slightly greater sense of optimism in De Biasi's ranks, this week's hosts can still only boast just one win from their last 13 games in all tournaments before they meet a Portugal side desperate to reclaim top spot in the group.
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Once again forced to rely on the heroics of ageless talisman Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal were minutes away from suffering a humiliating defeat to Ireland before the Manchester United man rose highest twice to head home and become the highest all-time international goalscorer in the history of the men's game.
Fernando Santos then proceeded to make no fewer than 11 changes for their weekend friendly battle with 2022 hosts Qatar, where goals from Bruno Fernandes, Andre Silva and debutant Otavio all contributed to a resounding 3-1 win as Qatar finished with nine men.
Santos's side will renew hostilities with Qatar in a friendly next month, but they must first work to guarantee their rightful place at the 2022 tournament, as their narrow victory over Ireland was not enough to see them retain top spot in Group A last weekend.
Indeed, Serbia's 4-1 thrashing of Luxembourg has seen them rise to the summit courtesy of their superior goal difference - leaving Portugal in a highly unfamiliar second place with 10 points - and a sixth consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals is far from a certainty.
An own goal from Maksim Medvedev was all that could separate Azerbaijan and Portugal in a 1-0 win for the Selecao back in March, and this week's visitors have now won their last five in a row against their opponents without shipping a single goal.
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Team News
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Azerbaijan will be forced into an alteration at left-back after Anton Kryvotsiuk picked up his second booking of Qualifying last time out, so Azar Salahly could be drafted into the team.
The hosts otherwise have no fresh concerns and have no reason to fix what is not broken from their draw against Ireland, but De Biasi may consider moving to a five-man defence against the 2016 European champions.
Such a move could see Abbas Huseynov reintroduced to the fold, with 20-year-old winger Toral Bayramov potentially being the unlucky one to be sacrificed.
As for Portugal, Ronaldo has been granted early leave from the squad in order to link up with his Manchester United teammates, but he would have missed this game through suspension anyway.
The 36-year-old's absence could see Andre Silva hold his place up top after netting in the friendly win over Qatar, while Bernardo Silva and Diogo Jota should both be reintroduced to the attack.
Ruben Dias, Pepe and Joao Cancelo are all among the players set to be recalled to the defence, while Rui Patricio should replace Anthony Lopes for his 99th international cap.
Azerbaijan possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; Huseynov, Medvedev, Haghverdi, Badalov, Salahly; Alasgarov, Qarayev, Mahmudov, Ozobic; Emreli
Portugal possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Guerreiro; Palhinha, B. Silva, Fernandes; R. Silva, A. Silva, Jota
We say: Azerbaijan 0-2 Portugal
Azerbaijan have proven themselves to be a resilient outfit when under the cosh, and the absence of record-breaker Ronaldo is certainly a huge boost to the fired-up hosts.
However, the United man's absence allows the likes of Andre Silva and Jota the chance to shine for their country, and while Portugal cannot expect to cruise to a comfortable win, we are still backing a routine two-goal triumph for Santos's side.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 9.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (16.6%) and 0-3 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.28%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
