Austin FC and Vancouver Whitecaps will face off in an MLS clash between the two bottom sides of the Western Conference at the Q2 Stadium on Wednesday.
Both teams are on a consistent run of form, but unfortunately neither run is consistently good and either side will be happy to break their run of form with a win.
Match preview
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A lack of cutting edge in the final third has cost Austin all season long, and that was the case again last weekend as they lost 1-0 to Real Salt Lake.
That is the 12th occasion in just 18 games this season that the expansion side have failed to find the net as, once again, early chances went begging - Diego Fagundez hitting the post and Tomas Pochettino heading wide.
Julio Cascante then received a red card early in the second half and Austin looked even less threatening for the remainder of the game, as they made it eight games since their last away win, with six of those being losses.
A 3-2 win at home to fellow strugglers Houston Dynamo two weeks back gave a glimmer of hope, but there is no ignoring that is one of just two victories in 16 games since early May.
The new boys could yet turn around their inaugural season, though, with their next three fixtures at home against beatable opposition. Nine points from those could mathematically see them as high as sixth by the end of the month.
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The first of those beatable opponents is Vancouver, who are just one place and one point ahead of their midweek opponents.
Their consistent run of form amounts to a bizarre string of five consecutive draws, with their last five away games also all finishing as stalemates.
The most recent of those was a dull 0-0 against the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday, where the Quakes had the better chances - in a game of few - but could not quite find the finishing touch.
Vancouver continue to fight hard, but they cannot seem to find that extra level to turn some of their draws into wins. Halfway through the season, they are not where they would like to be, but the hope is that some of their new additions can provide something different.
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Team News
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Austin will be without Cascante as he serves a one-match suspension for the aforementioned red card, and Argentinian forward Sebastian Driussi unfortunately hobbled off late in the game, having only just seen his first significant action for the club.
Aaron Schoenfeld and Ulises Segura remain out with left knee problems, Ben Sweat and Danny Hoesen are long-term absences with ACL and hip injuries respectively, and McKinze Gaines looks likely to miss out again with a left abductor strain.
The Whitecaps also picked up some injuries at the weekend - right-back Javain Brown had to be helped off the field after picking up an apparent lower-body injury late on and midfielder Janio Bikel also appeared to pick up a knock.
One of their main goalscoring threats, Lucas Cavallini, will be out for the next six weeks with a knee injury, but another in Cristian Dajome was fit enough for a substitute appearance against San Jose and could now be ready to play a full 90.
Defender Cristian Gutierrez remains out with a left quad strain.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Stanley, Besler, Romana, Jimenez; Pereira, Ring; Fagundez, Pochettino, Dominguez, Gallagher
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Nerwinski, Rose, Vesilinovic, Gaspar; Baldisimo, Owusu, Teibert; Dajome, Caicedo, White
We say: Austin FC 0-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
With both sides struggling to find the net it seems likely to be a low-scoring game. Surely the draws have to end at some point for the Caps, and they look the more likely of the two teams to find that extra something to get them over the line, especially with the absence of Cascante in the Austin back four.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 55.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
