A pair of teams with identical records will go toe-to-toe at Q2 Stadium on Sunday as Austin FC play host to Minnesota United in Major League Soccer action.
Austin squandered a two-goal lead to the San Jose Earthquakes last weekend, drawing 2-2, while an own goal by Brent Kallman sent the Loons to defeat for the first time this season, 2-1 to the Seattle Sounders.
Match preview
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It was a draw which must have felt like a loss for Josh Wolff and the Verde-and-Black on Saturday as this upstart Austin side learned a hard lesson about what happens when you take your foot off the gas, conceding twice in two minutes to the Quakes.
While the end result was disappointing, one positive this group can take away from that draw is the fact that these players were able to earn a point away from home, ending a 10-match losing run on the road, which all started with a 1-0 defeat at Minnesota on June 23, 2021.
The Verde-and-Black have found plenty of success in the Texas capital, unbeaten in five straight home fixtures, scoring 16 goals over that span.
Austin have not had a problem finding the back of the net in 2022, leading the league with 13 tallies to date, though at times they have left their goalkeeper out on an island with their aggressive approach, conceding 11 shots on target against San Jose.
Running out to a big lead, as we saw them do in their opening two games, is an ideal scenario for any team, though it is perhaps unrealistic to expect that to happen all the time.
Close encounters have not always gone the way that Wolff and his team would have liked, earning only two points in their previous five regular-season meetings that were decided by a goal or fewer.
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A slow start combined with some poor decision-making while in possession was too much for Minnesota to overcome last week, and as a result they are now on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture.
There is still plenty of time to make up that deficit, but the defeat to Seattle left manager Adrian Heath with a lot to think about for this upcoming match.
Some needless giveaways and, as Heath put it, cheap turnovers have given their opponents plenty of quality scoring opportunities.
We have seen a few inconsistencies defensively from them in recent matches, which perhaps is not surprising when considering that they have not had the same starting back four in the lineup over their previous three encounters.
If there is one thing that has been a constant within this group in 2022, it would be the number one, as in the exact amount of goals scored by the Loons in each of their five of their regular-season contests.
Do not expect a lot of long balls or crosses in this encounter, as these are two of the worst MLS sides in terms of headed duels, with Minnesota winning only 45.5% of theirs and Austin just behind them at 45%.
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Team News
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Austin winger Ethan Finlay will face his former side for the first time on Sunday after the second most capped player in Loons history and fourth-highest goalscorer left Minnesota over the offseason.
Maxi Urruti began the month of April by making a little history, becoming the first player to score a goal for all three Texas-based MLS teams when he tallied in the 11th minute.
Sebastian Driussi scored his fourth goal of the campaign in their previous encounter, and he now trails Brandon Vazquez by one in the Golden Boot race.
Jhohan Romana is out with a right hamstring strain, Diego Fagundez leads the team in assists with three and Brad Stuver played a big part in their draw versus the Quakes, as the Austin keeper stopped nine shots.
Speaking of busy goalkeepers, Dayne St. Clair has had to deal with a lot of pressure in Minnesota as the Canadian faced seven Seattle efforts in their opening match this month.
Kemar Lawrence saw his first action in a Loons uniform, entering the game in place of Brent Kallman in the second half.
Chase Gasper has entered the league's Substance Abuse and Behavioural Health Program, Patrick Weah remains hampered by an issue in his knee, while Romain Metanire, Franco Fragapane and Oniel Fisher are all questionable with thigh injuries.
Their leading goalscorer Luis Amarilla has attempted 16 shots this season, the fourth-most in the league, and Emanuel Reynoso has generated his share of attention, suffering the second-most fouls (17) in MLS after five games.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Gabrielsen, Cascante, Lima; Gallagher, Ring; Fagundez, Driussi, Finlay; Urruti
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Fisher, Boxall, Lawrence, Dibassy; Trapp, Dotson; Lod, Reynoso, Fragapane; Amarilla
We say: Austin FC 3-1 Minnesota United
Austin are the most dangerous attacking side in the league at the moment, and although St. Clair has played exceptionally well for Minnesota, he can only do so much to contain such a dynamic side, who have scored 11 goals this season in three home fixtures.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
