After putting together their biggest win in club history, we will see what Austin FC have for an encore when they host Inter Miami on Sunday at Q2 Stadium in Texas.
The Verde-and-Black began their second season in Major League Soccer with an emphatic 5-0 victory over FC Cincinnati last weekend, while the club from South Beach played to a 0-0 draw versus the Chicago Fire.
Match preview
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Josh Wolff and the Austin faithful could not have asked for a better start to their sophomore campaign, as the lowest-scoring team in 2021 (35 goals) were two goals to the good after 15 minutes of play and poured it on from there against the helpless Orange-and-Blue.
It is hard to know how much stock we should put into that performance, knowing that it was against a team in disarray since entering the league, not to mention that Cincy conceded a league-high 74 goals a year ago.
In any event, when you can score one-eighth of your total goals in club history in a single match, you are doing something right, and Austin have done a lot of things right at home lately, unbeaten in their previous three regular-season encounters dating back to the end of last year.
According to Wolff, the mentality of this group moving forward will be to remain humble and hungry, a smart approach given their inconsistencies in their inaugural campaign.
He believes that his team are in a much better place than they were last year, and they will have a chance on Sunday to win consecutive fixtures for only the second time in franchise history.
One noticeable improvement that we have seen in the early stages of this campaign has been their execution on set pieces, scoring off a free-kick and a corner kick in their opener.
In their previous three regular season home fixtures, the Texans have started quickly, drawing first blood within the first 10 minutes of play each time.
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While Austin were clinical in the attack, Phil Neville and The Herons were equally sharp defensively in their first game, stifling a revamped Chicago front line, remaining consistent and compact throughout the 90 minutes.
The back three were aided by the hard running of their midfield five, who won possession back multiple times, and were able to neutralize their opponents' transition game.
While they rarely conceded many quality chances in their opener, Miami still seem to have issues when it comes to creativity and quality in the final third, as the lowest-scoring team in the Eastern Conference a season ago (36 goals) rarely threatened Gabriel Slonina in the Fire goal.
Historically, the road has not been kind to this side, who have only won six regular-season encounters as the visiting team, losing their last six away fixtures in 2021.
Miami continue to play a pragmatic and direct style, sitting deeper while trying to create chances on the break, an approach that has not been consistently effective.
Despite possessing some proven attacking quality, they struggle to get the ball into the opposing penalty area, and a good number of their shots come from outside the box.
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Team News
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Cecilio Dominguez notched a brace for The Verde-and-Black in their victory last weekend as he was named in the MLS Team of the Week, while the other goals came courtesy of Alexander Ring and Sebastian Driussi, along with an own-goal by Alec Kann.
Several newcomers made their Austin debuts, including Kipp Keller, Ruben Gabrielsen, Maxi Urruti, Ethan Finlay, Jhojan Valencia and Felipe.
Brad Stuver only had to make two saves to collect his first clean sheet of the new campaign, while they got assists from Nick Lima, Zan Kolmanic, Diego Fagundez and Druissi.
Miami defender Damion Lowe was rock solid at the back in their opener, with eight clearances and three interceptions, DeAndre Yedlin won six of his eight duels and combined for three tackles, three interceptions and three clearances alongside fellow wing-back and Academy graduate Noah Allen.
Ian Fray, Joevin Jones, Nick Marsman, Victor Ulloa, Edison Azcona, Bryce Duke, Kieran Gibbs and Robbie Robinson have undisclosed injuries.
Former Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain may not have got his name on the scoresheet, but he was still perhaps their best playmaker last weekend, completing 23 of his 28 passes, including 15 attempted efforts in the final third.
At the same time, goalkeeper Clement Diop began his Herons career on a positive note, stopping three shots for his first clean sheet with Miami.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Gabrielsen, Kolmanic; Fagundez, Pereira, Ring, Dominguez; Urruti, Driussi
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Diop; Yedlin, Mabika, Lowe, McVey; Mota, Gregore, Adams; Lassiter, Higuain, Rodriguez
We say: Austin FC 2-0 Inter Miami
Even though they faced perhaps the weakest defensive unit in the league on opening day, the Verde-and-Black look vastly improved in the final third and have thrived on their home field.
Despite showing tremendous discipline in their opener, there seems to be a lack of depth in the Miami attack, with Higuain having to do a lot of work himself.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 57.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
