Having both suffered Serie A setbacks at the weekend, Atalanta BC and Fiorentina convene at the Gewiss Stadium on Thursday, as they clash in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals.
The hosts were beaten finalists in two of the last three years, while their visitors made it to this stage thanks to a spectacular win over Napoli in the previous round.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following last month's 2-0 victory over Serie A counterparts Venezia in their last-16 tie, Atalanta have now won 16 of their last 17 Coppa Italia matches on home soil, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.
That remarkable streak has helped them to a couple of finals in recent times - including last season's defeat to Juventus - but La Dea are still seeking to add another national cup to their first and only triumph back in 1963.
To continue their path to this year's showpiece, the Nerazzurri will have to improve on some less than impressive recent form at the Gewiss Stadium, which contrasts starkly with that stunning Coppa record at their Bergamo headquarters.
Just three wins from 12 attempts there leaves Atalanta inside the bottom half of the rankings for points taken on home soil, with the league's fifth-placed side most recently emerging pointless from their clash with Cagliari on Sunday - when goalkeeper Juan Musso was sent off and the visitors' makeshift striker Gaston Pereiro scored twice; consigning them to a 2-1 defeat.
Indeed, one of the Bergamaschi's league losses at home came against Thursday's opponents back in September, when they were beaten by the same scoreline - the now departed Dusan Vlahovic bagging a brace for Fiorentina.
In addition to their patchy results of late, coach Gian Piero Gasperini will be growing concerned about a run of only one goal from his side's last three matches, which is totally out of character with their generally free-scoring ways.
Therefore, a return to cup competition could ease any tension permeating their stuttering Serie A campaign, and they will no doubt be helped by meeting a similarly front-foot side.
© Reuters
Renowned for scoring freely and entertaining fans and neutrals alike, Vincenzo Italiano's Fiorentina team made a slow start to life without their top-scoring talisman - crashing to a 3-0 home reverse against Lazio at the weekend.
The departure of Vlahovic for old foes Juventus inevitably took its toll on the Tuscan side, and Italiano's new-look attack will inevitably need to fare better at the Gewiss Stadium.
They travel to Bergamo amid a typically inconsistent run of form, having followed up their 5-2 destruction of nine-man Napoli in the last round of the Coppa with a 6-0 success over Genoa, then drawn 1-1 with improving Cagliari before Saturday's defeat.
Now eighth in the Serie A standings, the Viola turn their thoughts back to the cup, in which they overcame Serie B sides Cosenza and Benevento in the opening rounds.
Fiorentina's most recent Coppa Italia triumph came as long ago as 2001, and since then they have only returned to the final once, in 2014. Under the management of Italiano, though, they have all the ingredients of a daring cup side, so will surely go full throttle to seal a place in the semi-finals.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Starting a tough run of fixtures over the coming weeks - including the crucial clash against fellow top-four contenders Juventus on Sunday and a Europa League double-header with Olympiacos - it is likely that Atalanta will rotate their resources.
Gian Piero Gasperini has several options across the pitch following a period hit by injuries and illness, but star striker Duvan Zapata - only back from a muscular injury at the weekend - has sustained a new injury and could remain out of action for more than a month.
Recently acquired winger Jeremie Boga could be handed a first start after making his debut from the bench on Sunday, but it remains to be seen whether Gasperini will revert to a three-man defence, which would see at least one of Rafael Toloi and Merih Demiral come into the side.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina's new striker Arthur Cabral will compete with loan signing Krzysztof Piatek to lead the line in the visitors' customary 4-3-3. Since the 2018-19 season, Piatek has netted more goals in the Coppa Italia than anyone else, with 10 in total (one more than former Fiorentina star Federico Chiesa) - though only one was scored away from home.
The wide pair in support could be selected from Jonathan Ikone, Riccardo Sottil - whose father Andrea represented both of these clubs as a player - Jose Callejon and Riccardo Saponara.
Nicolas Gonzalez will also be considered, having returned from injury at the weekend, and Alvaro Odriozola is available after serving a Serie A suspension.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Djimsiti, Demiral, Palomino; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Zappacosta; Boga, Pasalic; Muriel
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Odriozola, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Castrovilli, Torreira, Maleh; Gonzalez, Piatek, Saponara
We say: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina
The first of two encounters between these attack-minded teams in the next fortnight promises to provide some exciting football, even if both sides have been hit-and-miss of late.
The hosts should win through to the semi-finals once again, as Fiorentina travel particularly badly and are still in the process of reconfiguration post-Vlahovic.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
