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Arsenal logo
Premier League | Gameweek 32
Jul 1, 2020 at 6pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Norwich logo

Arsenal
4 - 0
Norwich

Aubameyang (33', 67'), Xhaka (37'), Soares (81')
Martinez (63')
FT(HT: 2-0)

McLean (27'), Rupp (31'), Vrancic (86'), Stiepermann (90+2')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Norwich City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday night's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Norwich City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal return to the Emirates Stadium for the first time since March 7 on Wednesday night when they host relegation-threatened Norwich City.

Both teams were in FA Cup action at the weekend, with Arsenal progressing into the semi-finals whereas Norwich were knocked out by Manchester United.


Match preview

Arsenal midfielder Dani Ceballos celebrates scoring against Sheffield United on June 28, 2020© Reuters

It was a tale of two late goals for these two sides at the weekend, with Arsenal booking their place in the FA Cup semi-finals courtesy of an injury-time winner over Sheffield United and Norwich crashing out after conceding an extra-time goal against Manchester United.

For Arsenal it was another much-needed win; for Norwich it was another difficult blow to take in a season which looks increasingly destined to end with an immediate return to the Championship.

The Gunners were slow to get going again after the restart as defeats to Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion left them languishing, but they have since bounced back with successive victories over Southampton and Sheffield United.

Manager Mikel Arteta will be the first to admit that there is plenty of work still to be done, but he has now won more games in 19 outings as boss than Unai Emery and Freddie Ljungberg managed in 26 combined games this season.

Seven of those victories have come in Arsenal's last 10 matches across all competitions, and yet they still remain ninth in the Premier League table and with hopes of Champions League football fading fast.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on June 28, 2020© Reuters

That can chiefly be attributed to their away form; they have won just three times on the road all season - all under different managers - and have picked up 10 points fewer than Wolverhampton Wanderers on the road, a significant figure as they trail fifth-placed Wolves by nine points in the table as things stand.

It will be a relief to finally be back at the Emirates for the first time in almost four months, then, as the Gunners bid to make it four successive home league wins for the first time since April 2019.

Arsenal are unbeaten at the Emirates in the league this calendar year and, if they can maintain that form until the end of the season, it could be the foundation for at least qualifying for the Europa League via the Premier League this season - something they are currently two places and two points short of being in a position to do so.

Victory on Wednesday will be expected, but it is also needed given what follows; Arsenal's next four league games after this one all come against teams currently above them in the table.

Norwich are also in must-win territory, with a six-point gap to make up to safety over the final seven games of the season.

Norwich City boss Daniel Farke on June 24, 2020© Reuters

Daniel Farke's side have shown very few signs of being capable of achieving that since the restart so far, mustering only two shots on target from their two league defeats at home to Southampton and Everton.

The latter loss was their 20th of the season in the Premier League, reaching that unwelcome milestone in their 31st game - only once before have they lost more after 31 matches of a Football League campaign, when they were in the Third Division South in 1946-47.

Norwich did at least score against Manchester United on Saturday and will have been gutted not to make it to penalties, having been on the end of a 118th-minute winner from Harry Maguire.

The Premier League goal drought continues, though; they have not scored a top-flight goal since February, have scored just one since January 22 and, incredibly, only have four to their name all calendar year.

The picture looks even worse when isolating their away form too, with just one point and one goal from their last six Premier League matches on the road - a run which stretches back to December 14.

Unsurprisingly, Norwich have the worst away record in the entire division this season with only one win, six points and six goals to their name from 15 games, and with trips to Chelsea and Manchester City also to come before the end of the campaign it is difficult to see that improving much.

Arsenal Premier League form: WWWLLW
Arsenal form (all competitions): WWLLWW

Norwich Premier League form: LLWLLL
Norwich form (all competitions): WWLLLL


Team News

Arsenal defender David Luiz receives treatment for an injury on June 28, 2020© Reuters

Arsenal have suffered a torrid time of things with injuries since the restart, and David Luiz and Mesut Ozil joined the list of problems at the weekend.

Ozil missed out entirely due to a slight back injury and, while he could be back in contention for this one, the quick turnaround in fixtures will not help Arsenal's cause at all.

Luiz, meanwhile, limped off with an ankle injury which will also threaten his involvement in this match, although Arsenal are yet to determine the full extent of the problem.

Gabriel Martinelli, Pablo Mari and Bernd Leno have also all picked up injuries since the restart which will keep them out for the remainder of the campaign, while Calum Chambers will not feature before next term either.

There could be better news elsewhere, though, with Cedric Soares in contention to make his long-awaited debut in this match and Lucas Torreira closing in on a return.

The likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Hector Bellerin and Dani Ceballos were left out of the starting lineup at the weekend but could all return for this match.

Norwich, meanwhile, will be without the suspended Timm Klose after his red card against United on Saturday.

Klose's absence will only add to Farke's defensive woes, with Grant Hanley, Christoph Zimmermann and Sam Byram already all ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Alexander Tettey finished the match at centre-back and may be forced to fill in there again from the start at the Emirates.

Lukas Rupp is also doubtful for the Canaries after picking up a hip injury against United, while Todd Cantwell will be assessed after coming off in that match too.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Mustafi, Holding, Tierney; Bellerin, Ceballos, Xhaka, Saka; Pepe, Nketiah, Aubameyang

Norwich possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Godfrey, Tettey, Lewis; McLean, Vrancic; Buendia, Duda, Hernandez; Pukki


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Arsenal 3-0 Norwich

For all of the problems Arsenal are experiencing right now, they look like a model club in comparison to Norwich, who are in dreadful form and have an injury crisis to boot.

It appears to be an ideal fixture for Arsenal to chalk up another win, and we cannot look past it being fairly comfortable for the hosts too.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 58.15%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Norwich City had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 1-0 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for a Norwich City win it was 1-2 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.


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Manchester United defender Harry Maguire celebrates with teammates after scoring the winner against Norwich on June 27, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool1210112481631
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Fulham125341717018
10Newcastle UnitedNewcastle125341313018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd124441313016
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham124351519-415
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Ipswich TownIpswich121651323-109
19Crystal Palace121561017-78
20Southampton121110924-154


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