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Dundalk
Europa League | Group Stage
Dec 10, 2020 at 5.55pm UK
Oriel Park
Arsenal logo

Dundalk
2 - 4
Arsenal

Flores (22'), Hoare (85')
Boyle (10'), Mountney (61'), Cleary (70'), Shields (77'), Kelly (82')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Nketiah (12'), Elneny (18'), Willock (67'), Balogun (80')
Soares (28'), Willock (30')

Preview: Dundalk vs. Arsenal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Dundalk and Arsenal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal make the trip to Dublin to round off their successful Europa League Group B campaign with a game against Dundalk.

The Gunners may have struggled domestically but have made light work of advancing in Europe, sealing top spot with this final game to play.

Dundalk are without a point in the competition, meanwhile, and will finish bottom of the standings regardless of Thursday evening's result.


Match preview

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on November 22, 2020© Reuters

Sunday's 2-0 loss to North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur means that Arsenal have now made their worst start to a top-flight campaign in 39 years.

The Gunners have lost five of their last seven league matches, winning just one of those, and Mikel Arteta has admitted that his players are letting the club down.

Arsenal's domestic woes are in stark contrast to performances on the continent, having taken more points in the Europa League (15) than they have in the Premier League (13) from six games fewer.

Last week's 4-1 home win over Rapid Vienna, watched by fans at the Emirates Stadium for the first time in 271 days, means that focus is now firmly on the last 32.

Another victory for Arsenal on Thursday would make it six in a row in major European matches, excluding qualifiers, for the first time since November 2005.

Dundalk manager Filippo Giovagnoli pictured on November 5, 2020© Reuters

This is nothing more than a dead rubber, though, as opponents Dundalk also have very little to play for on the face of it.

Claiming the scalp of Arsenal would still be a big achievement, of course, even if Arteta fields a weakened side, and Filippo Giovagnoli will be keen to end a disappointing run.

Dundalk have lost nine of their last 10 home major European matches, losing four in a row in the Europa League since winning 1-0 against Maccabi Tel Aviv in September 2016.

The Irish side are also winless in seven against English opposition, losing six of those in a run that has seen them score twice and concede 24.

This will be the second time the sides have met competitively, with Arsenal coming out on top 3-0 on matchday two, with Eddie Nketiah, Joe Willock and Nicolas Pepe on target that day.

Dundalk Europa League form: LLLLL
Dundalk form (all competitions): LWLWLW

Arsenal Europa League form: WWWWW
Arsenal form (all competitions): LDWLWL


Team News

Arsenal's Nicolas Pepe celebrates scoring against Sheffield United on June 28, 2020© Reuters

Dundalk have no known injury concerns for this match and Giovagnoli is expected to field his strongest available XI, even if there is little to play for.

The Irish Premier League season finished a month ago, but Dundalk's players have been kept fit with European and domestic cup matches.

Nathan Oduwa and Daniel Kelly led the line in the 3-1 loss at Molde last time out, though the likes of Michael Duffy and Patrick Hoban are also fighting for a starting spot.

As for Arsenal, Thomas Partey limped off on his return to action against Tottenham and is facing another spell on the sidelines, while David Luiz is unlikely to be risked.

Pepe is serving a three-match domestic ban so should be given minutes at the Aviva Stadium, and this is also an opportunity for Pablo Mari to work his way back to fitness.

Elsewhere, Folarin Balogun and Emile Smith Rowe, the latter of whom was on target last time out in the competition, will be hoping to earn rare starts.

Dundalk possible starting lineup:
Rogers; Cleary, Boyle, Gartland; Gannon, Shields, Sloggett, Flores, Dummigan; Hoban, Duffy

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Runarsson; Cedric, Holding, Mari, Kolasinac; Elneny, Azeez; Pepe, Willock, Smith Rowe; Balogun


SM words green background

We say: Dundalk 0-2 Arsenal

Dundalk have lost all five Group B matches while Arsenal have won all five. The Gunners may be struggling domestically, but they have looked far stronger in Europe and this should be another routine win.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Dundalk vs Arsenal

Dundalk
19.9%
Draw
11.8%
Arsenal
68.2%
507
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Alexandre Lacazette celebrates scoring for Arsenal against Rapid Vienna in the Europa League on December 3, 2020
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