Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 47.15%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 25.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.