Two sides separated by just one point and two places in the Super Lig table square off at the Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium where Alanyaspor play host to Fatih Karagumruk on Sunday.
The hosts will be seeking to snap their two-game losing streak and move into the Conference League qualification places, while the visitors could rise to seventh place with all three points.
Match preview
Alanyaspor could see their losing streak stretched to three games should they suffer defeat this weekend, which will be their longest losing run this season, dating back to April when they lost three successive games before a 3-2 win over Denizlispor.
Despite their recent slump in form, the Alanya-based club will be delighted by their performance in the first half of the season as they are currently eighth and could climb into fourth place with all three points on Sunday.
Their impressive performance so far has been in no small part owing to their fine form in front of goal as they boast the league's sixth-best record with 28 goals scored so far.
However, Bulent Korkmaz will hope his side can quickly arrest their dip in form as they have now lost three of their last four league games since their emphatic 6-0 cup win over Osmaniyespor on December 1.
Their latest defeat came last Wednesday at the Kalyon Stadium, where they were beaten 2-1 by Gaziantep courtesy of Furkan Soyalp's 56th-minute strike and an own goal from Famara Diedhiou 22 minutes later.
Meanwhile, despite having to play with nine men for over 50 minutes, Fatih Karagumruk put on a super defensive performance as they salvaged a 1-1 draw against league giants Fenerbahce last time out.
In a game where Burak Bekaroglu and Caner Erkin both saw red in the space of two minutes, Aleksandar Pesic put the hosts ahead shortly after the half-hour mark before Mesut Ozil calmly converted from 12 yards to level matters in the 40th minute.
Prior to that, Volkan Demirel's men ended their run of three consecutive Super Lig defeats when they claimed a hard-earned 1-0 win at Goztepe on December 19 courtesy of Erkin's 76th-minute strike.
With 26 points from 18 outings, Fatih Karagumruk are currently 10th on the log, level on points with ninth-placed Sivasspor and one point behind Sunday's hosts.
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Team News
Alanyaspor will take to the pitch without the services of 29-year-old midfielder Emre Akbaba, who is set to sit out his third consecutive game after coming off with a knee injury against Yeni Malatyaspor on December 12.
He is joined on the club's injury table by Cristian Borja after the Colombian defender sustained a muscle problem in the cup game versus Osmaniyespor.
Famara Diedhiou has netted three goals in his last three outings and we expect the Senegalese forward, who leads the club's scoring chart with seven goals so far, to spearhead the attack on Sunday.
The visitors, on the other hand, will have to make do with the absence of the Turkish defensive duo of Burak Bekaroglu and Caner Erkin, who both saw red in the game against Fenerbahce last time out.
Twenty-eight-year-old midfielder Kerim Frei is also out of contention for the visitors after picking up an injury in October's tie against Kayserispor.
Alanyaspor possible starting lineup:
Kirintilli; Bingol, Mevlja, Milunovic, Juanfran; Novais, Aksoy; Davidson, Akbaba, Karaca; Diedhiou
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Zukanovic, Bekaroglu, Hedenstad; Bertolacci, Biglia, Ugur; Karamoh, Pesic, Salibur
We say: Alanyaspor 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk
With just one point and two places between the sides in the Super Lig table, we expect a cagey affair with little goalmouth action on Sunday. Both sides are evenly matched on paper heading into the game and we predict they will settle for a share of the spoils.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alanyaspor win with a probability of 52.47%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alanyaspor win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
