Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2023 at 2pm UK

Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Burundi
3 - 2
Namibia

Bigirimana (1'), Bimenyimana (9'), Shabani (19')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Shalulile (41'), Rudath (85')
Fredericks (37'), Amutenya (66')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Burundi and Namibia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burundi

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Indonesia 2-2 Burundi
Tuesday, March 28 at 2.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Namibia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Namibia 2-1 Cameroon
Tuesday, March 28 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	9
2	Ivory Coast	3	3	6
3	South Africa	3	-1	3
4	Namibia	3	-5	0

Knowing that anything less than three points here would spell the end of their AFCON aspirations, we expect Burundi to be fully up for this one, and coupled with the added advantage of playing on home turf, we fancy the hosts to secure a narrow victory at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Namibia win with a probability of 81.38%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Burundi had a probability of 4.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Namibia win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (15.83%) and 0-3 (14.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (6.86%), while for a Burundi win it was 1-0 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burundi would win this match.

Result
Burundi	Draw	Namibia
4.5% ( -37.51)	14.11% ( -7.5)	81.38% ( 45.01)

Both teams to score 27.91% (

-42.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.14% (

-21.01)

49.86% (

21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.14% (

-22.06)

71.85% (

22.05)

Burundi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

30.99% (

-54.22)

69% (

54.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

5.39% (

-51.55)

94.61% (

51.55)

Namibia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.06% (

7.08)

9.94% (

-7.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.12% (

14.29)

32.88% (

-14.29)

Score Analysis

Burundi 4.5%

Namibia 81.37%

Draw 14.11%

Burundi	Draw	Namibia
1-0 @ 2.54% ( -2.27) 2-1 @ 1.09% ( -7.05) Other @ 0.87% Total : 4.5%	0-0 @ 6.86% ( 4.34) 1-1 @ 5.87% ( -2.65) 2-2 @ 1.26% ( -5.95) Other @ 0.13% Total : 14.11%	0-2 @ 18.27% ( 14.32) 0-1 @ 15.83% ( 11.37) 0-3 @ 14.06% ( 11.73) 0-4 @ 8.12% ( 7.09) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.76) 1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0.77) 0-5 @ 3.75% ( 3.39) 1-4 @ 3.01% ( 1.04) 0-6 @ 1.44% ( 1.34) 1-5 @ 1.39% ( 0.69) 2-3 @ 0.97% ( -3.29) Other @ 2.52% Total : 81.37%