Round 16 of the 2024 Formula 1 season takes us to the Autodromo Nazionale Monza, where McLaren will be looking to continue their fine recent form which has seen them close the gap at the top of the Constructors' Championship to just 30 points.
Known affectionately as the "Temple of Speed", the drivers will be at full throttle for 80% of the lap and teams will be running a completely different setup to what we saw last time out at Zandvoort.
Race preview
© Imago
What a difference a year makes, as the last time McLaren raced at Monza they finished in P8 and P12, but this weekend they come into this race as the heavy favourites having won last time out at Zandvoort.
Race winner Lando Norris finished almost 23 seconds ahead of second-placed Max Verstappen, with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc rounding off the podium places in what ended up being a routine win for the McLaren driver.
All eyes are now very much on the battle at the top of the Constructors' standings with Red Bull being chased down by Norris and Oscar Piastri, and with Sergio Perez's poor recent performances, the Woking-based team will feel confident about overtaking Red Bull.
Ferrari will also have high hopes as they enter this race weekend, and the Prancing Horse can feel confident heading into their home race with the significant upgrades they will be bringing to Monza.
While a strong qualifying could set Ferrari up for success at Monza, it would be a surprise if Mercedes were able to match the pace of the three frontrunners, so Lewis Hamilton and George Russell might be looking at places P6-P10 come the race on Sunday.
© Imago
The midfield battle should be particularly interesting too, with Haas hoping they can challenge Aston Martin and RB, who are both ahead of them in the Constructors' Standings.
Nico Hulkenberg has demonstrated a number of times this season that he has the ability and experience to navigate his way through the field and score Haas some valuable points, and teammate Kevin Magnussen will also be relishing the opportunity to take the fight to RB duo Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo.
Williams come into this race having just dropped American driver Logan Sargeant and replaced him with Argentine Franco Colapinto for the remainder of the season, a move that has been met with plenty of scrutiny being directed on team principal James Vowles.
However, Williams will be confident of their pace and that they can potentially pick up points in their bid to catch Alpine, whereas despite a strong showing in practice, Sauber will likely be at the very back of the grid once again.
Friday's first practice session saw Verstappen end as the fastest driver, with Leclerc in P2, Norris P3, Sainz P4, and perhaps most surprising was Valtteri Bottas in P5.
With temperatures also being forecast to reach above 30º Celsius, tyre wear could also come into play on a track that has been completely resurfaced for 2024.
Track Guide
© Imago
Known for its vast straights and high-speed corners, Monza is a staple for fans of Formula 1 who love to see the cars and drivers performing on a knife-edge, and where room for error is at an absolute minimum due to the lack of run-off areas.
Unlike last time out at Zandvoort for the Dutch Grand Prix, Monza is a great circuit for fans who come to see overtaking, and in the current hybrid era there has been an average of 41 overtakes here.
With only 11 corners on this 5.793km track, you would be forgiven for thinking that speed is the only deciding factor at Monza but that is most certainly not the case.
Cars here will be running the absolute lowest downforce to maximise their straight-line speed, and because they will therefore be sacrificing cornering performance, strong acceleration out of the corners will be the key to success for the likes of McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari as they fight for the race win.
Despite the long straights, there is also a trio of tricky chicanes to navigate in each of the three sectors and this is why acceleration is such a key element at Monza, where if the drivers do not slow down in time the risk of understeering or locking up the tyres are commonplace.
Perhaps the most exciting part of this track is Turn 11 (Parabolica), where drivers often hit the curve at almost full throttle before the 230-mph charge back down to the chicane at Turn 1, and this is where we saw the infamous incident between Hamilton and Verstappen back in 2021.
The second sector is the most technical part of the track; featuring the most corners and braking zones, but there is also a strong opportunity to overtake before the chicane at Turn 8.
There are also two DRS zones here at Monza; one after Turn 7 and the other along the pit straight after Turn 11, where we are most likely to see overtaking action.
In terms of tyre compounds, the hard tyre is likely to be favoured choice for teams as track temperatures could reach in excess of 50º Celsius and degradation could be higher than usual due to the aforementioned new track surface.
Driver Standings
1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 295
2. Lando Norris (McLaren) - 225
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 192
4. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 179
5. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) - 172
6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) - 154
7. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) - 139
8. George Russell (Mercedes) - 122
9. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) - 50
10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) - 24
11. Nico Hulkenberg (Haas) - 22
12. Yuki Tsunoda (RB) - 22
13. Daniel Ricciardo (RB) - 12
14. Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - 8
15. Ollie Bearman (Ferrari) - 6
16. Kevin Magnussen (Haas) - 5
17. Esteban Ocon (Alpine) - 5
18. Alex Albon (Williams) - 4
19. Zhou Guanyu (Sauber) - 0
20. Logan Sargeant (Williams) - 0
21. Valtteri Bottas (Sauber) - 0
Constructor Standings
1. Red Bull - 434
2. McLaren - 404
3. Ferrari - 370
4. Mercedes - 276
5. Aston Martin - 74
6. RB - 34
7. Haas - 27
8. Alpine - 13
9. Williams - 4
10. Sauber - 0
We say: Lando Norris to win
The race pace that McLaren demonstrated for the Dutch Grand Prix is sure to have raised many eyebrows over at Red Bull, and it would be a surprise if McLaren did not show yet another level of that speed on a track which traditionally rewards it.
While we think Norris will make it back-to-back wins in Italy, do not be surprised to see Ferrari challenging here if their upgrades are as promising as they sound.
