After opening their Qatar 2022 qualifying campaign with a tumultuous 3-2 defeat in midweek, European Championship finalists North Macedonia take on the tiny principality of Liechtenstein in Skopje on Sunday.
The 181st-ranked visitors were also beaten by a late goal in the first fixture of what is set to be another challenging campaign for the Central European minnows, as the Group G action continues apace.
Match preview
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On Thursday night, in Bucharest, North Macedonia ultimately fell to defeat against Romania, after a spirited comeback from two goals down to pull level came to nothing when Igor Angelovski's Euro 2020-bound side conceded an 86th-minute goal, scored by Ianis Hagi. The Rangers playmaker came off the bench to net the winner for the Tricolorii, as the Macedonians got their World Cup qualifying campaign off to a losing start.
They therefore come into this second match of their quest to reach a first-ever global finals following two successive defeats - with the previous reverse coming against Armenia back in November. However, North Macedonia will start as overwhelming favourites to make home advantage pay when they line up at the Tose Proeski Arena this weekend.
Though still only rated the 65th-best team in the world rankings, Angelovski's men are enjoying the most successful spell in their history and are eager to contend for a playoff spot, offering a ticket to next year's finals. Having gone unbeaten in eight competitive games before that setback against Armenia, they can feasibly expect to challenge Romania and Iceland for a top-two spot.
Integral to their hopes will be the Italy-based trio of national icon Goran Pandev (currently at Genoa), Napoli midfielder Eljif Elmas and Udinese's Ilija Nestorovski - all of whom started in midweek.
While most other squad members are drawn from more humble club environments, the Red Lions remain a considerable challenge for any mid-ranking nation, let alone a perennial struggler such as Liechtenstein.
Their next assignment could hardly be more contrasting though, as they must travel to Duisburg, where they will meet four-times winners and major group favourites Germany.
Little Liechtenstein began another uphill task, amid a competitive-looking group, by hosting Armenia on Thursday - only missing out on a hard-earned opening draw due to Noah Frommelt's late own goal in Vaduz. Despite conceding 69% of the possession and allowing 26 attempts on their goal, the home side very nearly achieved an unlikely result.
Previously finishing second behind Gibraltar in their League D Nations League group, Martin Stocklasa's men could only post a solitary win - over San Marino - in their most recent international campaign.
Also registering just two goals and two points from their section during qualification for Euro 2020 - with a final goal difference of -29 from their 10 games - the tiny nation have tasted victory just once in their last 19 outings; suffering losses to both Malta and Gibraltar last autumn.
Nonetheless, such a spirited showing in midweek could offer some hope of pulling off a shock scoreline in Skopje this time out.
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Team News
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North Macedonia manager Igor Angelovski may opt to rotate his resources somewhat, as his side now host limited opposition, sandwiched between fixtures against Romania and Germany.
Serie A stars Eljif Elmas and Iljia Nestorovski could start again on Sunday though, with their fellow Italy-based colleague and captain Goran Pandev perhaps standing down, as his ageing legs may not withstand three starts in the space of a week.
Dinamo Zagreb's Arijan Ademi came into the international period on a high from being involved in the Europa League slaying of Tottenham Hotspur and scored as a substitute in Bucharest last time out, so may feature from the start.
In attack, meanwhile, Real Mallorca forward Aleksandr Trajkovski - another goalscoring sub in the Romanian capital - is in contention for a place should Pandev be rested.
For the visitors, there are unlikely to be many changes due to the lack of squad depth available to head coach Martin Stocklasa, so teenage forward Noah Frick - son of former Serie A striker Mario Frick, who is still Liechtenstein's all-time top scorer on 16 goals - could again team up with older brother Yanick Frick in attack.
Skipper and Swiss Super League regular, FC Thun's Nicolas Hasler is the principality's currently-active top scorer - with a meagre five goals from his 73 caps to date - and should feature in midfield, alongside Aron Sele.
North Macedonia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Ristovski, Musliu, Velkovski, Alioski; Spirovski, Ademi, Bardhi, Elmas; Nestorovski, Trajkovski
Liechtenstein possible starting lineup:
Hobi; Goppel, Kaufmann, Malin, Yildiz; Meier, Hasler, Sele, Kuhne, Y. Frick; N. Frick
We say: North Macedonia 2-0 Liechtenstein
Certainly strong favourites to put their first three points on the board in pursuit of a place at Qatar 2022, North Macedonia should seal the win by at least two clear goals, but may not enjoy a free-for-all against dogged visitors who have conceded only three times in their last five outings - albeit versus mostly modest opposition.
With a smattering of quality from the top five European leagues to call upon, the Red Lions can put Liechtenstein to the sword before focusing on a far tougher encounter with Germany in the coming days.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 56.47%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.
