After contrasting first round results, Primeira Liga rivals Boavista and Pacos de Ferreira will go head-to-head at Estadio do Bessa, on Monday evening.
While the hosts crashed to a three-goal defeat to open their campaign, Pacos have added to their fine first-day win by sealing progress in Europe.
Match preview
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Having finished 13th in the Portuguese top flight last term - and 12th the season before - Boavista have drifted into mid-table obscurity in recent times, and ambitions to rise above their current station were dampened by last week's events in Barcelos.
Two goals down within the first half-hour of their 2021-22 league campaign, they ultimately returned home chastened by a 3-0 loss to Gil Vicente, after Fran Navarro's double helped the home side to a success which reflected their dominance of possession.
Hopes had been raised after Os Axadrezados had previously won both of their recent Taca de Liga fixtures - against Maritimo and Portimonense - to progress to the third-round group stage, but they were unable to maintain that momentum into last Monday's game.
Teenage forward Tiago Morais came to the fore during Boavista's cup ties, having made his first senior appearance last December, aged 17 years and 3 months - the club's youngest Primeira Liga debutant. A product of the youth system, who also spent time in Benfica's lauded academy, Morais netted both goals in the 2-0 win over Portimonense, and started again at Gil Vicente; stationed out on the right flank.
In the absence of last season's loan star Angel Gomes - who has returned to Lille following a successful spell at the Porto-based outfit - recently appointed head coach Joao Pedro Sousa will surely hope for more inspiration from his exciting starlet on Monday.
Despite home advantage, Boavista are likely to be cast as underdogs ahead of Pacos de Ferreira's visit, as the away side finished 'best of the rest' behind Portugal's established top four last season.
Building on that excellent fifth-placed finish could prove challenging for Pacos boss Jorge Simao, who took over from Pepa earlier this summer, despite suffering relegation with Belgian club Mouscron just weeks before.
European progress, though, would be a welcome highlight for the upwardly mobile outfit, and completing a 4-1 aggregate victory over Larne in midweek has set up a glamour tie with Tottenham Hotspur in the playoff round of UEFA's new Europa Conference League.
It had previously taken penalties for Os Castores to overcome Gil Vicente in the Taca da Liga second round, while last weekend they got their league campaign off to a flying start with a 2-0 win against Famalicao.
Goals from Lucas Silva and Nuno Santos at the start of the second half saw Pacos earn a deserved three points on home soil, and they will now be intent on overturning a recent lack of success versus Monday night's opponents. Ahead of the game, they have failed to win any of their last five meetings with Boavista; including losing 2-0 on their last trip to Estadio do Bessa in April.
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Team News
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Joao Pedro Sousa can now benefit from the news that FIFA has lifted sanctions on Boavista, which restricted the club from registering new signings, but Monday's match may come too soon for recent acquisition Rodrigo Abascal - a Uruguayan centre-back - to make his Primeira Liga debut.
Alireza Beiranvand, Filipe Ferreira and Kenji Gorre are among the men now available as a result of the decision, while USA international Reggie Cannon has just returned to Portugal after lifting the Gold Cup with his country and could feature at right-back. Rising star Tiago Morais should retain his spot on the same flank, while Yanis Hamache is expected to feature at left-back following the departure of Ricardo Mangas to Bordeaux.
Meanwhile, Pacos are likely to make changes from their midweek trip to Larne and perhaps revert to the 4-3-3 setup that saw them to success against Famalicao.
Lucas Silva found the net versus Fama, so should start in attack alongside promising new signing Denilson, who recently arrived from Atletico Mineiro. The pair's fellow Brazilian, Douglas Tanque, was surprisingly omitted last time out, with speculation about his future ongoing.
Another new boy, Rui Pires, could earn his first start in midfield, but first-choice goalkeeper Jordi will miss out again through injury, with Andre Ferreira set to deputise once more.
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Beiranvand; Cannon, Garcia, Porozo, Hamache; Morais, Perez, Reymao, Santos; Sauer, Njie
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Fonseca, Baixinho, Maracas, V. Antunes; Santos, Carlos, Pires; Delgado, Silva, Denilson
We say: Boavista 1-2 Pacos de Ferreira
Pacos are primed for victory on Monday, as they have enjoyed a positive start to the new campaign, while Boavista are only just emerging from the uncertainty of a potential transfer ban and have begun slowly.
A number of offensive weapons mean that the visitors can change the game's momentum even if things are not progressing in their favour, so another maximum-points haul is on the cards.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.03%) and 2-1 (7.58%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (11.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
