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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Salford City had a probability of 22.13% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.96%) and 1-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Salford City win was 1-2 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Salford City |
56.79% ( 0) | 21.07% ( -0.01) | 22.13% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 61.6% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.8% ( 0.05) | 36.19% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.69% ( 0.05) | 58.31% ( -0.05) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.32% ( 0.02) | 12.68% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.13% ( 0.03) | 38.86% ( -0.03) |
Salford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.55% ( 0.03) | 29.45% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.54% ( 0.04) | 65.45% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Salford City |
2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.48% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.1% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.46% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.83% 4-2 @ 2.12% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.43% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 4.1% Total : 56.79% | 1-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( 0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.07% | 1-2 @ 5.76% 0-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.79% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 3.1% Total : 22.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | BarrowBarrow | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Gillingham | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
3 | Walsall | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
4 | Notts County | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
9 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
10 | Chesterfield | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
11 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
13 | Salford City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
14 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
17 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
19 | MK Dons | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
24 | Morecambe | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
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