Simone Inzaghi's Lazio will be looking to continue their ascent up the Serie A table when they host Filippo Inzaghi's Benevento at Stadio Olimpico on Sunday afternoon.
The Biancocelesti have won four in a row in the league to keep their European qualification hopes alive, while Benevento have won just one of their last 14 matches.
Match preview
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Sergej Milinkovic-Savic was on target in the second minute of added time to earn Lazio the most recent of those victories away at Hellas Verona last week.
Simone Inzaghi's charges have now overcome Crotone, Udinese, Spezia and Hellas to move up to sixth, four points off fifth-placed Napoli with a game in hand.
The top four is also potentially just three points out of Lazio's reach should they win that game in hand, with their entire focus now on the league.
Lazio's improved form dates back to the turn of the year; in fact, only Inter (2.56) and Atalanta (2.29) have averaged more points per game than them in Serie A in 2021 (2.27).
That is not good news for Benevento, who have dropped down to 16th following a disappointing run of form since the start of the year.
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The Sorcerers' only victory since January 6 came against Juventus last month, which says an awful lot about the reigning champions' plight this season.
That was Benevento's most recent away outing, which followed a 1-1 draw at Spezia, but never before have they gone three straight away matches without defeat in Serie A.
Filippo Inzaghi's side have lost two of their three Italian top-flight meetings with Lazio, with 16 goals scored across those fixtures - an average of 5.3 per game.
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Team News
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Felipe Caicedo picked up a fifth yellow card of the season in Lazio's win over Hellas and will serve a one-match ban this weekend.
Fellow midfielder Lucas Leiva is also absent through injury, so Gonzalo Escalante is in contention to make just a fifth league start of the campaign.
After his late winner last time out, Milinkovic-Savic has now been directly involved in 15 league goals this season - his joint-best tally in a single Serie A campaign.
As for Benevento, they are also without a player through suspension as Alessandro Tuia picked up another yellow card last time out.
The visitors used a 3-5-2 system in their win at Juventus and will likely use that formation on this trip to the capital, with Gianluca Lapadula the focal point up top.
However, the Peru international has scored only one goal in his last 23 Serie A matches, after scoring 12 in the previous 23 appearances in the competition.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Marusic, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Escalante, Alberto, Fares; Correa, Immobile
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Glik, Caldirola, Barba; Letizia, Hetemaj, Schiattarella, Ionita, Improta; Lapadula, Gaich
We say: Lazio 3-1 Benevento
Goals tend to be scored when these sides meet, and there is also the added narrative of the Inzaghi brothers facing off in the dugout, though Simone recently tested positive for coronavirus and may be absent this weekend.
Benevento held Lazio in December's reverse fixture, and they stunned Juventus last time out on their travels, but the hosts are in great form and should get the job done here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 66.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Benevento had a probability of 14.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Benevento win it was 0-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
