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Gambia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 16, 2022 at 1pm UK
Independence Stadium
Mali national football team

Gambia
1 - 1
Mali

Barrow (90' pen.)
Marreh (24'), Badamosi (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kone (79' pen.)
Coulibaly (20'), Djenepo (40'), Haidara (43')

Preview: Gambia vs. Mali - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Gambia and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The Africa Cup of Nations continues with another mouth-watering contest as Gambia and Mali go toe to toe for top spot in Group F at the Limbe Omnisport Stadium on Sunday.

Having both picked up opening-day wins on Wednesday, both sides are currently level on three points at the top of the table and this makes for an exciting watch.


Match preview

Gambia's Ablie Jallow celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 12, 2022© Reuters

Gambia marked their debut at the Africa Cup of Nations on a winning note as they edged out Mauritania 1-0 when the sides squared off in the opening game on Wednesday.

The West Africans secured their spot in Cameroon after finishing top of Group D in the qualifiers, level on 10 points with runners-up Gabon and one point above third-placed Congo DR.

Gambia could not have wished for a better start on the biggest stage in African football as Ablie Jallow opened the scoring just 10 minutes into the game before repelling Al-Murabitun and holding on to their lead.

This was a first win in three games for Tom Saintfiet's men, who suffered a narrow 1-0 friendly defeat at the hands of Kosovo on June 11 before losing 2-0 to New Zealand five days later.

Mali's Ibrahima Kone celebrates scoring their first goal with Hamari Traore and Amadou Haidara on January 12, 2022© Reuters

Like the Scorpions, Mali got their AFCON campaign off to a flyer as they saw off a rampant Tunisia side 1-0 at the Limbe Omnisport Stadium on Wednesday.

Despite being on the back foot for most of the game, the Eagles took the lead against the run of play when Ibrahima Kone stepped up and converted his 48th-minute penalty to condemn the Eagles of Carthage to an opening-day defeat.

Mali have now won all but one of their last five games in all competitions, while they are unbeaten in seven of their last eight, picking up six wins and one draw in that time.

This superb run has seen them secure a place in the playoffs of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, after an unbeaten qualification campaign where they finished top of Group E with 16 points from six games.

Mali are now one win away from almost certainly securing qualification to the round of 16, where they were sent packing in Egypt three years ago courtesy of a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Ivory Coast.

Gambia Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • W

Gambia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Mali Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • W

Mali form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Mali players line up before the match on January 12, 2022© Reuters

Gambia will have to make do with the absence of Salford City full-back Ibou Touray, who hobbled off the pitch with an 82nd-minute injury in the win over Mauritania on Wednesday.

In his absence, 27-year-old Bubacarr Sanneh could come into the fold for his first starting appearance since June's 1-0 win over Togo.

With his strike against Al-Murabitun, Jallow has now scored two goals in his last three games for Gambia and we expect the 23-year-old forward to lead the attack alongside Zurich man Assan Ceesay.

Meanwhile, Brighton and Hove Albion midfielder Yves Bussouma should come in for his first start of the tournament in place of Adama Traore, who was hooked off shortly before the hour mark through injury.

The Malians will also be unable to call upon the services of El Bilal Toure as the Reims forward will serve his suspension after receiving his marching orders against Tunisia on Wednesday.

Gambia possible starting lineup:
Jobe; Modou, Colley, Sanneh, Tore; Marreh, Adams, Colley, Barrow; Ceesay, Jallow

Mali possible starting lineup:
Mounkoro; Haidara, Kouyate, Sacko, Traore; Camara, Bissouma; Djenepo, Haidara, Traore; Kone


SM words green background

We say: Gambia 0-2 Mali

We expect both sides to take the game to each other from start to finish as victory almost certainly secures their place in the knockout stages. The Malians boast a significantly superior and more-experienced squad and we are tipping them to maintain their perfect start to the tournament.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Gambia vs Mali

Gambia
29.5%
Draw
9.8%
Mali
60.7%
61
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Equatorial Guinea flag Eq Guinea32107
Q Nigeria Nigeria32107
Q Cote D'Ivoire flag Ivory Coast31023
4 Guinea-Bissau flag Guinea-Bissau30030

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Cape Verde flag Cape Verde32107
Q Egypt Egypt30303
3 Ghana flag Ghana30212
4 Mozambique flag Mozambique30212

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Senegal flag Senegal33009
Q Guinea flag Guinea31114
Q Cameroon flag Cameroon31114
4 Gambia flag Gambia30030

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Angola Angola32107
Q Burkina Faso flag Burkina Faso31114
Q Mauritania flag Mauritania31023
4 Algeria Algeria30212

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Mali flag Mali31205
Q South Africa South Africa31114
Q Namibia Namibia31114
4 Tunisia Tunisia30212

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Morocco Morocco32107
Q DR Congo flag Congo DR30303
3 Tanzania flag Tanzania30212
4 Zambia flag Zambia30212


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