Freiburg host Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Sunday in what looks set to be a crucial clash at the bottom of the table.
The hosts have failed to win since the opening day of the season, sliding to 14th in the table in the process, with Mainz picking up their first point of the season against Schalke prior to the international break.
Match preview
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Freiburg have now taken just two points from their last five matches, with them slipping perilously closer to the relegation zone in the process.
Christian Streich's side were simply outclassed in a 3-0 defeat to RB Leipzig before the international break, with Emil Forsberg in excellent form tor the hosts. After striking the post in the early exchanges, the Sweden midfielder was scythed down by Philipp Lienhart, with Ibrahima Konate converting from close range from the ensuing free kick to give Julian Nagelsmann's side the lead heading into the interval.
Nicolas Hofler, who carelessly gave the ball away for three of Bayer Leverkusen's four goals in Freiburg's previous defeat, continued his poor form by tripping up Christopher Nkunku in the penalty area. Marcel Sabitzer punished the visitors, with Angelino adding gloss to Leipzig's victory with a magnificent free kick from 30 yards.
Freiburg will be targeting the match against struggling Mainz as a real opportunity to get back to winning ways and put some breathing space between them and the relegation zone.
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Jan-Moritz Lichte was just eight minutes away from securing his first win since being appointed as Mainz manager - and the club's first league win of the season - but his side could not hold on in a crucial clash with Schalke 04.
Former Manchester City defender Matija Nastasic was correctly adjudged to have trampled on Jonathan Burkhardt's Achilles tendon in the penalty area, allowing Daniel Brosinski to fire Mainz into the lead from the penalty spot.
Schalke equalised through Mark Uth's audacious free kick which sailed into the top corner, before Ozan Kabak conceded his third penalty in three successive matches by running into Jean-Philippe Mateta's path, with the forward making no mistake from the spot to restore Mainz's lead heading into the break.
Kabak thought he had redeemed himself by tapping into an empty net from a corner, but the Turkish defender was adjudged to have handled the ball. With time running out, Mainz hearts were sunk when substitute Steven Skrzybski's cross was inadvertently turned into his own net by Jeremiah St Juste to leave the home side marooned to the bottom of the table and both sides still awaiting their first win of the season.
Freiburg Bundesliga form: DLDDLL
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LLLLLD
Team News
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Streich will be without Kwon Chang-hoon due to coronavirus, with Mark Flekken's elbow injury keeping him on the sidelines.
Midfielder Janik Haberer is also unavailable due to an ankle injury, meaning that Hofler is likely to have to play his way out of his poor form of late.
Lichte will have been disappointed by Adam Szalai sustaining a meniscal injury while on international duty with Hungary, while Philipp Mwene is also out with a torn muscle.
Robin Quaison may return in attack, having been dropped to the bench against Schalke.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Kubler, Gulde, Lienhart, Heintz, Gunter; Santamaria, Hofler, Tempelmann; Sallai, Holer
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St. Juste, Kilian, Niakhate, Brosinski; Barreiro, Latza; Burkhardt, Fernandes, Quaison; Mateta
We say: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05
We expect this to be a closely-fought affair between two sides devoid of confidence at present, but Freiburg may have the edge with the threat of their front two.
Lucas Holer has looked in decent form given the circumstances this season and could have too much for a Mainz defence consistently leaking goals.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
