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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 27.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
Result | ||
Southampton | Draw | Cardiff City |
48.29% ( 0) | 24.46% ( -0.02) | 27.25% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 55.56% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.26% ( 0.06) | 46.75% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.99% ( 0.06) | 69.01% ( -0.06) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.58% ( 0.03) | 19.43% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.75% ( 0.05) | 51.25% ( -0.05) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.96% ( 0.04) | 31.04% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.64% ( 0.05) | 67.36% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Southampton | Draw | Cardiff City |
1-0 @ 9.88% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.42% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.12% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 3.06% Total : 48.29% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.45% | 0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.13% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 27.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Sunderland | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
3 | Burnley | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
4 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
5 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
6 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
7 | Swansea CitySwansea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
8 | Watford | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
9 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Derby CountyDerby | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
12 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
13 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
14 | Bristol City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
17 | Hull City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
19 | Millwall | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 |
20 | Coventry CityCoventry | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
21 | Preston North EndPreston | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
22 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
23 | Portsmouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
24 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 |
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