We said: Scotland 1-1 Greece
Scotland will be confident as they return to Hampden Park with a 1-0 lead, but Greece must not be underestimated, as they have won all of their last four matches away from home.
However, Scotland's home advantage will certainly have an affect, and while we believe Greece will breach their defence, we ultimately expect the spoils to be shared and the hosts to secure their place in League A.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Scotland had a probability of 29.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Scotland win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greece would win this match.