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Angers
AJ Auxerre
Brest logo
Le Havre
Lens logo
Lille
Lyon
Marseille
Monaco
Montpellier
Nantes
Nice
PSG logo
Reims
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Gerard Houllier
Marseille

Lyon
2 - 3
Marseille

Caleta-Car (53'), Cherki (90+3')
Mata (45+1'), Lacazette (59'), Caleta-Car (90+3'), Cherki (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Lirola (69'), Garcia (82'), Rowe (90+5')
Balerdi (1'), De Zerbi (45+8'), Maupay (90+3')
Balerdi (5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-2 Marseille

Form can often go out the window in such fiercely-fought derby matches, but the start Marseille have made means they are full value as favourites in this one. Lyon's suspect defence matched against Marseille's prolific attack should give the visitors the edge, despite the fact they will be playing against a raucous atmosphere with no away fans in attendance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
34.37% (0.134 0.13) 24.21% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01) 41.41% (-0.11 -0.11)
Both teams to score 60.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.7% (0.116 0.12)42.31% (-0.104 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.29% (0.114 0.11)64.71% (-0.10300000000001 -0.1)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.83% (0.13200000000001 0.13)24.17% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.51% (0.181 0.18)58.49% (-0.171 -0.17)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (0.00099999999999056 0)20.59% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)53.13% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 34.37%
    Marseille 41.41%
    Draw 24.21%
LyonDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.018 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.02% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.75% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.33% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 34.37%
1-1 @ 11.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.27% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.21%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.21% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.27% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.3% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.29% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 41.41%

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
22.9%
Draw
14.4%
Marseille
62.7%
118
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')

Ounahi (75')
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Oliveira (21'), Murillo (25'), Aubameyang (55')
Ounahi (49')

Lovren (21'), Diawara (87')
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Lyon
1-2
Marseille
Lacazette (68')
Under (44'), Gusto (90+2' og.)
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Marseille
1-0
Lyon
Gigot (43')
May 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Marseille
0-3
Lyon

Sampaoli (28'), Lopez (57'), Gueye (71')
Lukeba (55'), Dembele (76'), Toko Ekambi (88')
Dembele (60')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG14104037112634
2Marseille1492331171429
3MonacoMonaco1492324121229
4Lille1475224141026
5Lyon147432617925
6Nice146532617923
7Lens146531712523
8Toulouse156361717021
9Auxerre146262121020
10Reims145452018219
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
14StrasbourgStrasbourg143562227-514
15Angers143471424-1013
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1440101126-1512
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1422101336-238


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