Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lyon | Draw | Marseille |
34.37% ( 0.13) | 24.21% ( -0.01) | 41.41% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.7% ( 0.12) | 42.31% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.29% ( 0.11) | 64.71% ( -0.1) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.83% ( 0.13) | 24.17% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.51% ( 0.18) | 58.49% ( -0.17) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.41% ( 0) | 20.59% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.87% ( -0.01) | 53.13% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Lyon | Draw | Marseille |
2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 34.37% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.21% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.84% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.3% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 41.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 34 |
2 | Marseille | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 29 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 29 |
4 | Lille | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 26 |
5 | Lyon | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Nice | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 23 |
7 | Lens | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 23 |
8 | Toulouse | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Auxerre | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Reims | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 19 |
11 | Brest | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 16 |
12 | Rennes | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 14 |
13 | NantesNantes | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
14 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 14 |
15 | Angers | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 13 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 13 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 36 | -23 | 8 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |