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J1 League | Gameweek 25
Aug 7, 2024 at 11am UK
Kashima Soccer Stadium

Kashima Antlers
3 - 0
Sagan Tosu

Nono (18'), Nakama (53'), Anzai (79')
Morooka (47')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Nakahara (38'), Fukuta (42'), Kawahara (49'), Togashi (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's J1 League clash between Kashima Antlers and Sagan Tosu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Kashima Antlers 1-5 Brighton
Wednesday, July 24 at 11am in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 1-4 Hiroshima
Sunday, July 21 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Kashima Antlers 3-1 Sagan Tosu

While Sagan Tosu have experienced a slight upturn in their away record recently, it is difficult to back against the hosts, who have the best home record in the division this season and have not lost at this venue in almost a year. We feel this should be a fairly straightforward three points for the Antlers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kashima Antlers would win this match.

Result
Kashima AntlersDrawSagan Tosu
49.47% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01) 24.67% (0.00099999999999767 0) 25.86% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 53.7% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.36% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)48.64% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.24% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)70.76% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Kashima Antlers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31%19.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.31%51.68%
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.86% (0.010000000000005 0.01)33.14% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.26% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)69.74% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Kashima Antlers 49.47%
    Sagan Tosu 25.86%
    Draw 24.66%
Kashima AntlersDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.6%
2-1 @ 9.52%
2-0 @ 8.62% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 5.16%
3-0 @ 4.67% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.09%
4-0 @ 1.9% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 49.47%
1-1 @ 11.71%
0-0 @ 6.53% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 5.26% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.66%
0-1 @ 7.21%
1-2 @ 6.47% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 3.98% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.38% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.94% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.47% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 25.86%

How you voted: Kashima Antlers vs Sagan Tosu

Kashima Antlers
81.3%
Draw
6.3%
Sagan Tosu
12.5%
16
Head to Head
Apr 20, 2024 6am
Gameweek 9
Sagan Tosu
4-2
Kashima Antlers
Kawahara (30'), Ryan (45+3', 80'), Fukuta (88')
Ryan (38'), Nagasawa (59')
Nono (11'), Suzuki (86' pen.)
Aug 19, 2023 10am
Gameweek 24
Kashima Antlers
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Higuchi (26'), Chinen (80' pen.)
Sekigawa (9'), Shoji (90+4')
Narahara (66')
Yamazaki (23'), Iwasaki (31'), Togashi (72'), Seok-Ho (78'), Narahara (82')
Aug 19, 2023 10am
Gameweek 24
Kashima Antlers
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Higuchi (26'), Chinen (80' pen.)
Sekigawa (9'), Shoji (90+4')
Narahara (66')
Yamazaki (23'), Iwasaki (31'), Togashi (72'), Seok-Ho (78'), Narahara (82')
May 27, 2023 9am
Gameweek 15
Sagan Tosu
2-2
Kashima Antlers
Moriya (27'), Hayakawa (69' og.)
Tashiro (66')
Nago (33'), Suzuki (90+1')
Sano (77'), Higuchi (80')
Sep 16, 2022 11am
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Falcons
@
Eagles
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia30177646222458
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima301511455302556
3Vissel KobeVissel Kobe30167747281955
4Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers29147846361049
5Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka2913973223948
6Tokyo Verdy30111183941-244
7Yokohama F MarinosYokohama29125124944541
8FC Tokyo30118114142-141
9Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa2810994337639
10Albirex Niigata29109104040039
11Cerezo OsakaCerezo2991193639-338
12Avispa Fukuoka30911102833-538
13Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki29910104542337
14Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus29114143338-537
15Kyoto Sanga29107123546-1137
16Kashiwa ReysolReysol2989123444-1033
17Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare3088144046-632
18Jubilo Iwata2987143649-1331
19Consadole SapporoConsadole3067173457-2325
20Sagan Tosu3073203860-2224


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