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Most likely shocks during the upcoming international break

Sports Mole looks ahead to some of the potential shocks that could occur across the upcoming week of internationals across the globe.

The final international break of the season is among us, and there is plenty on the line for many nations, most notably those in Europe and Asia.

Twelve UEFA nations will battle it out for the final three spots at Euro 2024 across very intriguing playoff paths, while AFC World Cup qualifying continues in the Asian continent, with some minnows looking to stake their claim for a place at the expanded 2026 finals.

There are also a number of friendlies taking place, as Europe and South America's best prepare for their major continental tournaments in the summer.

Here, Sports Mole looks at some of the likely shocks that could take place across the globe during the upcoming internationals.


Greece failing to qualify for Euro 2024

Greece's Anastasios Bakasetas celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on November 21, 2023© Reuters

On the 20th anniversary of one of international football's biggest-ever shocks, Greece will this time look to avoid being the slain giants when they enter the Euro 2024 playoffs this week.

After very disappointing results over the past decade, the Euro 2004 champions have slipped down the world rankings, and down the divisions in the UEFA Nations League, as they competed in League C during its previous edition.

That, however, has provided them with an opportunity to reach the finals this summer in Germany, after finishing third behind France and the Netherlands in their qualifying section.

As one of the League C group winners, Greece, along with Georgia, Luxembourg and Kazakhstan, will enter one of the three four-team mini-tournaments to decide the final spots at the Euros.

On paper, it appears as though Greece will end their 10-year wait of not reaching a major tournament, given the fact that they are in a section with three nations who have never reached one before.

It may not be all plain sailing though, as their semi-final opponents Kazakhstan showed fine form in qualifying, winning six of their 10 matches, including against Denmark and away to Finland, but they would go on to miss out on automatic qualification to the Danes and Slovenia.

Should Gus Poyet's side progress past the Kazakhs, they then face a trip to either Georgia or Luxembourg in the final, and both have players who can punish them.

Georgia were largely underwhelming in qualifying, but they possess Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, one of the finest wingers in Europe at present, and in excellent form following a resurgence at Napoli.

Luxembourg also pose a threat, as 9-0 and 6-0 defeats to a rampant Portugal overshadowed a superb campaign for them which saw them take 17 points from a possible 24 against the four other nations in their section.


Estonia to knock Poland out?

Estonia's Henri Anier celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 26, 2022© Reuters

Elsewhere in the Euro 2024 playoffs, Estonia were possibly the strangest qualifiers, as they finished bottom of their group with just one point, but claimed a spot in League A's playoff path.

As only two of the 16 nations that competed in League A did not qualify automatically for Euro 2024, the other two spots were handed out to the winners of League D (Estonia), and a randomly drawn team from League B (Finland).

Estonia beat San Marino and Malta home and away to take top spot among all sides who competed in League D - the lowest division in the UEFA Nations League.

Unsurprisingly, given their poor qualifying performance, Estonia are rank outsiders to progress to the finals, but semi-final opponents Poland have gone through an extremely rough patch over the last 12 months.

The reign of Fernando Santos lasted barely half a year, as the Euro 2016 winning manager was sacked following a woeful start to qualifying that saw them lose away to Moldova and Albania.

Michal Probierz came in but could still not lead them into the top two of their group, as Albania and Czech Republic took the automatic spots, after a draw at home to Moldova ended any realistic chances of them progressing.

Moldova were priced at 14-1 when they went to Warsaw and got a draw, and Estonia are the same here, so Poland's recent form should give the minnows hope.

Estonia have lost on all four of the previous trips to Poland, but they won the last meeting between the sides in 2012, and a repeat here would set up a momentous clash against either Wales or Finland for a spot in Germany.


San Marino to get a long-awaited win?

San Marino's Filippo Berardi celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on November 20, 2023© Reuters

As the perennial whipping boys of the European continent, even the Nations League has not provided San Marino with many opportunities to end their unbelievable run without a win.

A 2004 friendly win over Liechtenstein remains their last and only ever victory as a footballing nation, with another 10 defeats from 10 in Euro 2024 qualifying keeping San Marino near the bottom of the FIFA World Rankings.

However, facing fellow minnows from other continents is a great indicator to see how they stack up compared to nations who play in much weaker confederations.

The minnows in UEFA are much stronger than those found in North America, Asia and Oceania for example, so two friendlies this week against Saint Kitts & Nevis could provide La Serenissima with a long-awaited victory.

San Marino played similar opposition in the form of St Lucia back in 2022, drawing 1-1 and losing 1-0 away to the islanders, and they were also held at home to the Seychelles earlier that year.

Roberto Cevoli's side will take huge confidence into this window though, considering that they scored in three successive matches for the first time in their history at the end of Euro 2024 qualifying, netting past Denmark, Kazakhstan and Finland in close-fought affairs.

Saint Kitts were shock Gold Cup qualifiers last year, beating regular participants Curacao and French Guiana in the playoffs, but they lost all three group games by a combined score of 14-0.


Post-Asian Cup hangovers?

 Qatar celebrate after capturing the Asian Cup versus Jordan on February 9, 2024© Reuters

AFC World Cup qualification resumes following this year's Asian Cup earlier in 2024, and after a tournament full of surprises, this week could throw up a few more.

Jordan and Qatar both overcame the odds to reach the final, won by the 2022 World Cup hosts, as the likes of Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Australia flattered to deceive.

All four will likely cruise to qualification given the number of slots now allocated to Asia for the 48-team tournament in 2026, but some smaller nations will look to take their chance, and progress to the latter stages of the very brutal AFC qualifying.

Each matchup this coming week will see two nations face each other home and away in gameweeks three and four, and Tajikistan face Saudi Arabia hoping to hold onto second place in their group, ahead of Asian Cup finalists Jordan, who the Tajikis held earlier in the section.

Very little was known about North Korea before they started their qualifying campaign, as the nation shrouded in secrecy had not played a fixture in any capacity since 2019.

The North Koreans cannot be taken lightly after a positive start though, being unlucky to lose against Syria before thrashing Myanmar 6-1, and they now face a beleaguered Japan, who fell behind to Vietnam at the Asian Cup, and lost to Iraq and Iran.

Thailand face a tough test against South Korea, but will also bring confidence into this week after a fine Asian Cup campaign which saw them hold Saudi Arabia and Oman in the groups, and beat Kyrgyzstan, before being edged out in the knockout round by Uzbekistan.

Another nation to look out for is Malaysia, who held South Korea to a 3-3 draw at the Asian Cup and currently lead their section ahead of Oman, and that is who they will face twice this week, as they also seek a first-ever World Cup qualification.

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